Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - July 22, 2021
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Thoughts on the impact of a delta/ lambda wave sweeping the US and leading to shut downs again. Seeing data from LA that 20% of infected are vaccinated and Israel that Pfizer 39% effective against delta. This market is shrugging off a lot right now and thinking it will continue to do so (more problems, more money, more up). Just wondering if there is a straw that breaks the back and what size of a catalyst that is going to need to be (thinking large and many... eg a drop big and fast enough leading to margin calls to propel a decent sell off while making people shy enough not to buy the dip with the large amount of sideline cash currently available).
Appreciate the insights!
"Thoughts on the impact of a delta/ lambda wave sweeping the US and leading to shut downs again."
You mean like last year where you had some growth funds up well over 100%? Additionally, I don't think that there's going to be shut downs again (and not that there really were in the US in the first place, but I don't think there's an appetite for even what there was.) There was also a significant wave last Fall/early Winter and the market continued higher.
I think what is sort of interesting are things like what was announced by the NFL yesterday and whether or not there will be more penalties for the unvaccinated happening. Vaccine passports are being talked about and put to use elsewhere - it seems very unlikely that will happen here, but I dunno. I don't know what the market will do next week or next month, but I think what I'm trying to get a sense of and what interests me more is what does the world look like in 6-12-18 months? Does this continue in waves or do things actually get better and stay on the path towards improvement? Are there more countries that put vaccine passports into use? Does society become this sort of in-between of not "lockdowns" but perhaps less about being in crowded areas like pre-covid? Discussions of popular travel spots by Air B/B and others being more resort-y/nature areas and less big cities. Remote work not across the board, but sticking around more than perhaps some thought, etc.
"This market is shrugging off a lot right now and thinking it will continue to do so (more problems, more money, more up)"
It's not entirely. I think what you've seen this year is a massive rotation in February and again a couple of months later out of aggressive growth that did well last year and into value (energy, financials) and re-opening names. I didn't buy those names, but I really thought earlier this year that things did look like they were getting better and those names would continue to outperform but now the re-opening trade has been delayed again and who knows whether it will be the last time. I think in mid-May while Delta was being talked more and more about elsewhere, the rotation seemed to flip back towards what worked last year and that's where things currently seem to be.
The market was down 700 points on Monday in part on concerns about this, but what started going green Monday morning while the market was tanking? Things like SHOP. You had that selling Monday down 700+ and then it was off to the races again, but not for everything.
Meanwhile, things like UAL and DAL are down 9-12% in the last month. LYV is down about 15% in the last month. AWAY travel ETF down about 10%, etc. In the last month, nasdaq outperforming value again and almost caught up YTD again after the decline earlier this year.
Could there be a broader *correction*? Sure. But for the time being it seems as if things have flipped back to "what worked last year."
Need good advice which REIT ETF i should start a position in. Should I get REZ or VNQ? I like that REZ is cheaper than VNQ but expense ratio is .48% which is very high.
How did the AT&T Discovery merger not help the stock of DISCA?
There's merging with a streaming service that's losing customers and taking on debt to do it probably.
Do the traders on cnbc shows like Fast Money make any good money in the market? They're paid for years of commentary but they make their advice sound so personal. "I'm in this trade", "I'm not picking up more at this price". I'm sure it's all bullshit and they are lying or hiding their true returns but is there any indication on profitability vs the market?
Cramer and a few of them are excellent traders etc. That doesn't mean they are at liberty to give you their best advice, because they are syndicated and contracted on a show.
I also don't think it means they are wrong. They are like weathermen. They can tell you based on past experience what's most likely to happen. When they are wrong, they mitigated the loss with proper risk management.
That doesn't mean just because someone opened the same trade but exposed themselves to 100% risk that those talking heads are dinguses...
Question for any professionals here. My cousin is rather impressed with my success managing my own money, and asked if I'd be interested in actively managing his portfolio for a percentage of profits. First, can I legally do this? And second, what percentage is reasonable, considering I'd be doing this 50+ hours a week?
Hit me up let's talk please
How much do you like this cousin and are you okay with them not being your cousin?
We've been best buddies all of our lives. And I don't think money could ever change that. Or women.
We've conducted many business transactions over the years, and this would be no different.
I should point out that he owns his own business, and I handle a lot of his business and tax related stuff already, to the point where a lot of his vendors and customers have known me for years. What he's talking about is just one more business arrangement. He trusts me, I've never tried to fuck him, and am anal about documenting everything. His tax guy loves me.
So, as far as trust issues or honesty, it's never been an issue. And what we're talking about is managing his IRA, which is just a minor part of his assets.
So... where were we going with this?
Oh, and BTW, we're not talking about him giving me money to invest, or co-mingling of funds. We're talking about me managing his IRA using his brokerage account. Complete documentation of every transaction, and real time text updates to him. In many cases phone consultations beforehand, just like I do with his business.
Good to hear! I’ve seen bad family results when things go south as they can with investing. Just thought it was worth considering... but sounds like you factored that in
Like I said, just another business transaction. No emotion to it... I manage the account, print a monthly statement and he pays me.
Thing is, he trusts me. He doesn't trust financial planners. Too many stories about financial planners robbing their clients, and although he's a smart guy, anything that needs to be done via computer is something he just doesn't want to deal with. So he pays me.
First of all there's a lot of regulations if you wanted to legally active manage. But ignore all that.
Your success over the last few months or years does not qualify you for active management of even family members who are probably the worst people to you. At least a professional decorum exists between customer and business.
50+ hours a week is way too much time spent actually managing any portfolio suggesting you're not efficient enough to actively manage anything.
You are trading in one of the longest uninterrupted bull runs in history.
Actively trade your own account through a real recession, not the tiddly-wink Covid correction that turned around in a few days....and then see if you're able to keep your performance impressive.
Sound advice, thank you. As it is I put 50 hours a week into my own portfolio... Managing his would actually require very little extra effort, as I would be a lot more conservative with his portfolio. And, as far as the time I put into it, I'm retired and mostly have nothing better to do than identify bullshit spikes premarket, take a nap and place puts at open. Then I listen to music and watch while the day traders and institutional investors do their thing, eat lunch, take a nap until about 2, get up and start drinking and decide whether to sell the puts today or wait until tomorrow. Not much of a strategy, right? But I'm up almost 60% so far this week, and still have some itm puts and one almost itm call to sell tomorrow.
Ahh after reading that I'm not entirely sure I'd say you put 50 hours a week into it haha.
I thought you were like, pouring over some books and charts or something and that time was accounted for.
If you're sipping martinis on the beach well....different entirely.
Vodka tonics on the balcony, tablet on one side, telecaster on the other, music playing through my Spark 40 amp. I'm SERIOUS about my retirement. That's why I'm up by 4 nearly every day... Don't want to miss my morning nap. Life is good.
You should get into brewing mead. I have a recipe that makes about 20%abv and tastes so good women lap it up.
It's dry yet sweet, thin legs, very "not syurpy".
With a cigar it transforms into apple flavor
With a good cigar, I prefer Glenlivet or Maker's Mark.
funny you should say that.
With an extra week or two of oaking my mead is very much like a bourbon or highland scotch. But I generally prefer my mead to be "mead" and my scotches to be scotch.
Browsing around some Fintech companies, I decided to look at what the ARKF ETF was holding. At the bottom of their list, I saw this.45 - SOUTH AFRICAN RAND - (CUSIP) ZAR - (shares) 137 - ( Market value) 9.39 - ( allocation ) 0.00
What in the world is this? Why would they have R9.39 ( about $0.50 ) in South African currency in their Fintech ETF just randomly sitting there?
Edit: It's $9.39, not the other way around. But, still. Wut?
It's probably an uncleared amount of a trade that now costs more to close than it is worth.
Right now, in my opinion, there is too many fake (sometimes computer generated) low effort articles with clickbait titles trying to inform you about great new stocks, a new wsb short squeeze, some new crypto, ect. A lot of these articles could do sufficient harm if followed/taken seriously. Some examples of these are Marketwatch and Motley Fool. What are some other good or bad websites/articles?
Is that good or bad?
My worst picks have definitely been companies I've never heard of mentioned on investing blogs.
Most likely these companies are already trending in an S.E.O. echo chamber and you'll end up a bag holder. Do not buy!
There's a reason why there's a banned link list for r/investing \- you can find the list in the wiki of financial blog sites which are not permitted for many of the reasons that you raised - [https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/index/rules#wiki\_why\_are\_some\_media\_links\_banned\_and\_not\_allowed](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/index/rules#wiki_why_are_some_media_links_banned_and_not_allowed)
Anyone in here got eyes on Panasonic? (PCRFY)
I think it's a sleeper with big potential in their EV battery business, they are going hard on air conditioning (will be a big thing moving forward with climate change)
They are reorganizing as a holdings company, but they have some good business relationships with Tesla and Toyota. My main reservation is that it is OTC and has a huge float, but I do feel they are going to have a booming business when the Toyota EVs start rolling and their investments start paying off. (they sold $3.6 billion worth of Tesla stock recently)
I've been looking at it long term. Thing is, I don't invest, I gamble. But at some point I'm gonna start buying some long term investments with my profits, and from what I've read Panasonic seems like a good choice.
It's a gigantic company that has institutionals crawling all over it. You haven't noticed anything they didn't notice years before you.
A company like Panasonic has to plan 3 or 5 years in advance. So anyone with firepower like a Billion dollar institution will know way before you do what's coming up and have priced it in.
Are you ready to hold the bag for them?
Is this a long way of saying you think it’s a bad buy? I think they are probably a 10 year hold
Well I think it may be a good hold but I'm not so sure it possible to make money on macro decisions that take a lot of planning.
I bought about 50 shares when I was first starting out at around $8 a share because I was super into AMD and wanted to buy similar companies.
It was dumb luck, I picked them purely on name recognition but it's paid off heavy, but I feel like they could easily keep growing.
They've been around since the early 1900s, companies that last that long and are relatively successful the only time clearly have something figured out. I'm cautiously optimistic but wouldn't be surprised to see them hit $20 at some point in the next 5-10 years, which is how long I planned on holding them for.
Same, definitely a long term holder. Nice pickup at 8!
A few questions on mutual funds:
1) I have a portion of my holdings in VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market) through Vanguard, but my 401k, individual equity portfolio, and HSA are all within Fidelity. If I want to consolidate my VTSAX over to Fidelity, would I have to sell my VTSAX? Fidelity does sell VTSAX (as well as FSKAX) but you are charged a transaction fee when buying VTSAX through the Fidelity brokerage.
2) If I did move over to Fidelity and wanted to change to FSKAX, would I be able to flip my VTSAX funds to FSKAX or would I have to sell before rebuying FSKAX? Obviously would not want to pay taxes on my gains so would hold VTSAX and just keep my Vanguard account if that were the case.
I'm not sure on the first one - I'd recommend contacting your broker if you're looking to transfer assets between accounts.
There's no way to just convert one mutual fund into another. You'd have to sell your VTSAX and then buy FSKAX.
If you're diamond handing $DIDI, it may be time to cut your losses.
Anyone else wishing they hadn't bought into the weed hype from 6 months ago? Lol. Probably be at least 2+ years to get back to break even...
Look to the future not the past... cannabis is a heavily regulated product that can be sold on the street at a much cheaper price. Cannabis craze is through and better options are out there. Would you invest in a florist or big tech?
I'm about breakeven on GTBIF. Contemplating if I should sell them (to invest in dips in PLTR, SOFI, UWMC, BABA, ASPS, ET) or keeping the faith with Morningstar which has a fair value estimate with high-uncertainty of $55 on GTBIF.
I bought in again last week on the news Schumer was pushing legalization, thinking that might drive the potheads to buy in. I was wrong. Sold both $SNDL and $TLRY at a minor loss to free up $ for the fire sale Monday. The only people making money off the pot stocks are the pot company officers. Fuck them.
I sold in February so no I’m pretty psyched o bought in lol
Why is small cap getting crushed so bad?
Opinions on Pot stocks? Looking at VFF and TCNNF.
VFF is a Canadian-based grower with a price in the $9.50 range and a median target price of $17.66, which looks attractive. But, they also carry a P/E of 480, more than a little bit rich.
TCNNF is an otc stock, based in Florida. It is priced around $33.60, with a median target of 68.89, but that appears to be based on a pending acquisition, which will allow it to expand market share in the medicinal pot field. It carries a more reasonable (rel to VFF) P/E of $58.20.
I personally prefer the ETFs - MSOS and CNBS as they give you access to the broader market - pharmaceutical, supplier, services as the growers are just so oversaturated and will consolidate. This [article](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/27/toke-lahoma-cannabis-market-oklahoma-red-state-weed-legalization-437782) really openned my eyes not to focus on the growers.
I like GRWG
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For those people asking why their broker is down.
About 30 minutes ago - Akamai reported a global outage. For those unfamiliar - Akamai is a CDN or content distribution network. Many, many, companies use Akamai distribute their internet traffic. Including many financial services companies.
You can monitor the situation here - [https://edgedns.status.akamai.com/](https://edgedns.status.akamai.com/)
DNS SERVER ERROR
Institutional side also down fyi
There's a bunch of sites down; Delta, Enterprise, Expedia...
FIDELITY site and app, DOWN
Many German financial and bank sites down as well...coincidence?
AT&T is down, but Verizon is still up
AMEX is down
All the basic apps I use (Uber, Pinterest, Lyft, FB) all work, but DraftKings website is down. This is so odd.
I've tried different browsers as well and still having issues. Something is definitely going on.
Question. Is it possible to spread yourself too thin on dividend stocks? Do any of you have a general rule of minimum amount of money you’ll put into a dividend stock
If they are all equally secure, growing at the same rate, and paying out at the same %, it wouldn't matter, but that's doubtful and who wants to get 20 different payments of $.05?
I'd just focus on the highest growth, most secure, top payouts. Diversify enough to cover yourself if one pulls their dividend, but not so much that you've got a swarm of inconsequential payments.
Perfectly answered my question. Thank you
What do you mean by too thin?
These are made up numbers but for example: $100 into 20 different dividend stocks, is that spreading too thin? Maybe cut down to 10 stocks and put $200 into each.
Is owning 20 different dividend stocks better than just owning SCHD ETF?
Are they all percentage based returns? If so can you use some weighting to see how to best park your money? 200 stocks would drive me crazy to follow lol. I’m more on the side of having a smaller subset and then some of interest I haven’t yet invested in. Also, you can consider selling covered calls to improve your return... but you need 100 shares so this would favor fewer companies. But I am curious about this. What’s your driver for being so heavily interested in dividend stocks and so many? Diversification?
I think you misread. My example said 20 stocks, not 200 lol. 200 stocks would drive me insane as well. Right now I have 8 dividend stocks with $5,000 in equity in my biggest holding and $100 equity in my smallest holding. I’m wondering if I should trim down to let’s say 5 stocks so there is more money in each stock.
That I did lol. Knowing Reddit I thought you had like 1 share in 200 stocks... you sounds more reasonable. This is a great question. One point I keep considering is if you want to sell covered calls to increase your return then possible consolidation could help you get to 100 share blocks (making a lot of assumptions here). But very interested if anyone else is thinking of other considerations that may drive a decision
I’m gonna ask this question in theta gang Reddit. I wonder if anyone wheels dividend stocks
I was for a bit but shifted to some different stocks for higher premium. Some of the high dividend players I feel like have a low premium based on required cap to have 100 shares. I wasn’t as tied to the dividend aspect so that may be more of a controlling part of your decision
How do I calculate my personal Sharpe ratio?
You need your monthly or daily returns, which you can calculate as described [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ol166v/how_can_you_benchmark_your_portfolio_against_the/h5g14zh/) if you track your deposits/withdrawals and portfolio value at the end of each month (and you may be able to pull that from statements from your broker or other tools that they offer if you don't already have it). You also need the risk free rate of return, which can be defined different ways but [this should be good](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TB3MS) and turn it into a monthly or daily return that matches your portfolio periods. This has been zero or close to zero for years so you can neglect this part if you want.
Then calculate the (arithmetic) average of your returns minus risk free rate and divide by the standard deviation of your returns.
portfoliovisualizer can do it
What is the general consensus of how stocks perform through earnings ? I’ve been doing research and there’s a lot of mixed information. Some say stocks do better after earnings and some say they do worse. Is there a way to actually know or is it straight up a guessing game ?
Depends heavily on market conditions at the time not always 100% fundamentals - the environment matters as much or more
If any of us knew for certain, we’d be on yachts instead of on Reddit.
Yes I was thinking the same thing as soon as I commented. What I meant to ask, is there anything that I could look for to help point me in the right direction of how a stock may perform
Not really. You could try doing research, reading articles about the company but really trying to play earnings reports is IMO not a very good idea and definitely not something I try to do. Additionally, stock could run up into earnings and get to a point where it's priced for "great" and goes down because earnings were merely good.
Or earnings are good and the forward commentary isn't great so the stock goes down (people are concerned more with forward-looking statements vs the quarter that just happened.) Or maybe the market is "risk off" broadly during a period and people are more demanding and what looks like a good quarter on the surface might get sold off.
So many people come on here and go "WHY IS MY STOCK DOWN EARNINGS WERE GOOD!?!?!" and they're just looking at the headline that their co beat earnings, they didn't read the commentary or look at the guidance.
Personally, earnings for me are sometimes a chance to pick something up if I think a negative reaction to earnings is overdone and it's a time to basically check up on how a company I own is doing and listen to the conference call. It's not something that I try to bet on specifically. Like someone else said, if there was any predictable way to play earnings, we wouldn't be on here.
Anyone know of an app that will tell me the RSI of each stock in my watchlist? I know fundamentals are king, but I think there is some value to RSI. I also don't want to manually Google the RSI of the 100+ stocks on my watchlist
[Trading View](https://tradingview.com) - you can save your watchlist and it also saves your favourite chart view - I have mine set with the RSI and 20/50 Day averages.
You’d still have to go through them one-by-one but at least they are saved and you don’t have to enter them in every time.
Would using the [importxml function](https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093342?hl=en) in google sheets work? You'd just need to find a source you can pull the data from then create your watchlist in google sheets.
Bookmarked this comment, gonna get to this
I don't know if they have an app version but https://stockcharts.com/ is what I use.
Ye, I use that too, but I need to type in each stock (over 100 watchlist) one by one. I might be missing something though, I'm no stockcharts pro
SPRT doing so well this last week. So happy I got calls
I'm trying to understand when or why to use margin. I understand it is like a loan that the brokerage gives to investors to increase their purchasing power. That loan has some interest rate that the investor will have to pay back for borrowing the money. There are a bunch of rules like initial requirements and everything but I think my question is even more basic than getting into those details.
My question is shouldn't I always use all available margin as long as I'm keeping track of those returns and ensuring that those returns out pace the interest rate? I'm thinking if the SP500 gives an average of 7-8% yearly then if my margin rate is something less than that I should utilize all the margin my brokerage gives me. One step more risky would be to use the margin to buy a SPY LEAP like 1.5-2 years out this should easily out pace the interest rate of the margin being loaned to me.
Please shot holes in my thought process!
I’m looking for advice on dividends. I hold ABBV, OKE, MO, AGNC and O. Any input on these? Anything else I should consider like maybe a dividend ETF?
I really like VYM as an etf. Good dividend while also having nice growth
Awesome. I’ll do some DD. Thanks
Looking into DE. Unless my very novice understanding of their financials is completely off base, they look like a great value, and the company is insanely cash rich. But, it looks like that hadn't factored into the stock price until the last 18 months or so, as it was a super slow gainer before.
Can anyone with better understanding explain a possible "why" for me? Is this a case of the rising markets carrying all stocks? Has the company been a hidden value for that long, or does it tend to sit on its cash?
Better yet, where can I find this kind of information on my own?
I like the company a lot but there’s no way to learn without a lot of boring reading. With that, like a lot of other companies, it’s tough looking at a 5yr chart. Have they really grown in value that much? Idk honestly but it makes me pause a lot.
I hate Cramer so much.
This scumbag pushed his way in front of the vaccine line in front of 80 and 90 year olds and now lectures people on the virus.
Absolute scum of the earth.
That's absolute *rich* scum of the earth to you, poor.
Wow 3 shitty accounts with no karma posting and replying in a row... I'm sure everyone will be fooled.
You're just salty Alan didn't get you a house and car!
Do you believe investing into the stock market is a better avenue to financial freedom than real estate?
Yes I do
For most people probably not. Real estate is a great way to reduce tax liability for high income earners while also providing returns. My thinking is that most people that don't have a high income also don't have enough capital to make serious money on the stock market without getting insanely lucky.
What I'm really saying is that a high income is the way you become financially free unless you come from a rich family.
What is high income these days? 100k doesn't seem *that* high these days
True. It's hard to pick one number because it depends heavily on where one lives and their lifestyle. Someone making 200k in Kansas is going to seem much wealthier than someone making 200k in New York City.
So many pros and cons for both from personal experience. One way to decide is - When do you need the money for your definition of financial freedom? Now and continuously or for later? Stocks are way more fluid and much less emotional. Selling covered calls in a long term growth company can provide you with steady income now and grow your initial investment along the way. Depending on your how much you are investing, it could be a while until you see rent money if it is covering your mortgage payment. Much more emotional involvement with dealing with renters. You can hire a manager, but the costs can be pretty high. Also, my shares have never needed a roof repair or a new hot water heater.
So from your expirence. What would you say has made you the higher percentage of money?
Wait, I thought we are here to lose money?? ;)
At this stage, that would be a tough calculation for me (although I’d say if I could do it over I’d go stocks)... but I think the more helpful way to look at it is from your perspective. What is the total amount of money you are talking about and assess some plausible options. Let’s say you have 150k for a down payment (around here you might be able to get a condo and then would get enough rent to cover mortgage and HOA, hopefully property tax and insurance - but let’s keep it simple and say it covers expenses and you build equity until the house is paid off). What can that same 150k get you in theta gang land? Over a thousand shares of AAPL and selling covered calls would probably allow you to make more money and then you can via rent and you can continually reinvest and grow that. Sure taxes are higher, but paying taxes really is a privilege. I will say that the covered call route does require some discipline though - and it’s a good idea to set up a mechanical approach to it (eg every Monday I sell weekly calls at x% above price; if I get assigned so be it; I dick around too much sometimes trying to time a pop/ increased IV/ etc a long term I don’t think it has paid off and is too much time investment). Does aapl beat house value increases long term... Who knows!
Both have the ability to lead you to financial freedom but the stock market is easier to enter, real estates require more work but you can definitely make a lot of money from it.
I'm trying to figure out if I should pull everything out of the market and go real estate or not. It's a loaded question and i understand the complexity and how much a real estate market can vary. But I'm just trying to figure it out
Puts on DIDI
Given what's gone on since this went public it should be halted, investigated and then a determination made as to whether or not it should be delisted.
I'd give even odds DIDI will end up being delisted, and deservedly. I'm surprised it's not down 25% today. Yet. Some people just don't pay attention to their "investments" though. I moved about 25% of my portfolio into itm DIDI puts at open this morning.