By - subvertadown
Thanks for all the help this season
do NOT tell your league mates
Never help any of those MFs
Why the fuck would you want to tell your league mates?
This, Beersheets + Draftslayer, u/peakedinhighschool Trade Value chart put me in the playoffs every year. Make sure to support their causes if you win the 'ship.
I need to know what part of you wants to give such a big advantage away to your league.
The bitch part
I don’t know if I can bench the dolphins with the high number of sacks over the last 4 weeks. Tennessee is also giving up sacks
Don't be like me last week and drop the Dolphins after reading this post thus ending your season. Feels bad.
Yup, switched them out for the chargers 😭😭😭
My season would be over without Miami. It came down to the interception on 4th down.
Literally exactly the same for me.
Riding with phins. I’ve been using the strategy of picking a high ranked one in both subvertadown and https://www.rotoballer.com/week-17-defense-def-streamers-and-starts-2021-fantasy-tiers-rankings/980881 and it’s worked out great
^this is great content
I don't think I can sit TB vs the Jets but Miami has been so good that they're making me think I'm making a mistake haha
I'm all in on TB!
Same. Started em all year and am not disappointed.
Titans should be getting Lewan and Saffold back, but definitely hard to bench the best defense over the last 7 weeks against an offense that's been struggling.
Same. I’ve compiled MIA, KC and CHI for this week. MIA and KC feel too good to sit, but everyone has CHI as the high end streamer but it feels like a trap
Bears fan here: idk who they’re playing but it’s a trap unless it’s the lions. Which will still disappoint you.
Bears "fan" who doesn't know who the Bears play this week, lol
Jake Fromm and the giants
Agreed, 99% sure I’m not gonna start them
Bears fan. Bears fuggin suck. Don’t play any of em.
I get to play against Josh Allen and the Patriots defense in the finals… I knew they’d be at the top of these rankings :(
Don’t worry, I have Allen and pats d, so they should have an off week.
Ah yes, the duality of fantasy football.
Don’t worry, there will be a sweet spot where they score enough to beat me and not enough to help you win!
Bro if you're in the finals how can you think you're unlucky?
Sometimes fantasy football gives you enough luck to make the finals, so it can then deliver a knockout kick to the nuts when it matters most
No need to make it personal
Instead of stars you see nutsacks floating around. It sucks
Haven't pats D been having off weeks for the last few weeks? I have had them on my bench fortunately with the Titans stepping up for me.
That's okay. I play the Rodgers/Adams stack + Jefferson + MAndrews. Should be fun.
Me too but I’m hoping Josh Allen gets pulled after the first half lol
Literally in the same boat
I’m playing against josh Allen pats defense JT and kelce. Imma about to me molly wopped
I get Stafford was bad last week, but I'll be damned if I go down playing Wentz or Jimmy G over him.
No kidding. Baltimore might be an all time bad pass funnel defense right now with an offense that can actually put up points even with their third string QB. Stafford could legitimately have the best passing game of his career this week.
Right!? I just checked our scoring and he's qb5 on the year, ahead of Rodgers even. I'll die on this hill, he got me this far. Pivoting for one bad week is getting too cute.
Hopefully we will get to watch Kupp destroy my Ravens 😂😭🤡
This is true because I pivoted to him from Kyler in one league last week and this week I play him in the finals in my other league
He’ll definitely be ranked over Wentz now
Yea that makes it easier lol
Well, Wentz took himself out of the running and Jimmy G isn’t looking like a sure thing either.
I’m hoping my Stafford + Kupp stack grab me my first championship on my league of record. I’m talking 300+ yards, 3 - 4 TDs for Stafford and 120+ yards and 2 of those TDs going to Kupp
Phins took me to the ship, im starting them
Right there with you bud
Tennessee gives up sacks like crazy. Those are guaranteed points and the phins pass rush has been legit. They won't put up another 20+ pt game but they'll still post respectable numbers for sure
I’m not as confident w Phins @ TEN as some of you. I think TEN got some juice back last game. I like PHI or CHI or even IND better.
Conversely, you don’t think the Phins have *HAD* “the juice” and an insane level of confidence and swagger for the better part of 2 months now?
Not disagreeing w you, but they’ve had a cake walk the last two months. Look who they played. Hopefully this inspires them through TEN though.
Agreed but it’s not like TEN has been a monster offense to play against. Our league has some unique setting and the last 6 weeks defenses have done the following against them:
SF DST - 10 points
PIT DST - 18.5 points
JAX DST - 9.5 points
NE DST - 16 points
HOU DST - 19 points
NO DST - 6.5 points
This game has a 41.5 opening O/U (4th lowest of lines released so far). I’ll gladly chase the Sacks + TO opportunities MIA DST has been piling up against an offense that in the last 6 against comparable DST’s has put up a high point total of 23.
Aj brown coming back def has changed titans offense.
Texans, Jets, Panthers, Giants and Saints.
Super cake walk.
Ravens only good team they faced but Lamar has been taking a lot of sacks and turnovers.
@Titans definitely the toughest matchup so far. AJ Brown was scary last week. But idk hard to sit Dolphins rn (49ers my other option).
49ers could be a trap with the way that Davis Mills has been playing lately. Their secondary is not that great
Yeah that’s my worry too.
Oh wow those are all the bottom tier offenses
Indy lost quite a few players in their secondary to COVID today. Don't play them
Does anyone have the guts to start the Bears?
I could pick them up over the Eagles, but feel very nervous about it.
Giants fan here, we are without a doubt the worst team in the NFL right now. It is laughable to even suggest that we have an offense. I'd start the Bears with full confidence this week.
Torn between bears and eagles too. I typically go with the home team (bears) but keeping an eye on whether they shut Gibson down for the season.
I'm thinking of streaming the Bears over Dallas
I spammed this sub to start the Eagles last weekend because the Giants were shit. The Bears D just doesnt score many points so I am rolling with the Eagles for a ceiling play and no better waiver options. BEWARE THE NINERS LAYING AN EGG THIS WEEK!
Thanks for your service.
Thank you for all of your hard work and dedication to this sub.
Thanks for all your work and insights all season. So glad I stuck with your Eagles D projection this week
49ers DST v Eagles DST is going to be on my mind all week up to kickoff.
Lots of pros and cons to consider.
I have both and saints defense vs caronlina. It’s literally a coin flip and I have no idea what to choose
Meh I’m just gonna roster all of them and decide later tbh if I’m you. It’s what I plan to do with this collection anyway.
josh Johnson, Wentz and Mac Jones above stafford and burrow is lunacy. Very interesting to see though knowing how data driven these rankings are.
Seems this model is never high on Miami d. They are legit. Vs titans is nowhere near as good a matchup as the depleted saints tho. So this model does have me seriously considering a pivot. Though I think they will be okay. Titans offense is not scary. But it’s not inept. And at home.
Yeah, Burrow going apeshit against the Ravens gives me confidence In a big bounce back showing from Stafford. I mean, I don't have a choice but to start him, but, ya know
Struggling with this one. I also have the Colts D but Dallas is the reason I’m here.
Exact same situation. Leaning Colts, but only if they get their major pieces back off the COVID list this week
We have to roll them out with some confidence right??
I'm going to. Rankings be damned that defense makes plays. I have KC and Philly too so benching them is tempting, but I think Dallas still puts up points.
I have Dallas and super worried vs Cards who just got their starting C back. Cards don't give up a lot of sacks or turnovers and Dallas has done their best against bad teams. I have Bears vs NYG and seriously thinking of streaming them.
Counter argument is Cardinals haven’t done much without DHop. I’m leaning towards Dallas.
The cardinals fucking suck 😂 They've looked like shit the past 3 weeks now.
Missed their center and guard I think. They're getting them back this week. Should help Murray a bit. That said, as a Cardinals fan, you're right in that they have sucked for the past 3 weeks.
It'll help having them back - but idk if it'll be enough. Dallas D are a bunch of DAWGS right now.
I’m gonna ride or die with Dallas. They got me here.
Without a doubt.
I have Miami and Dallas. So torn
I appreciate these posts. The whole reason I even have Nick Folk and Dallas D is because of following Subvertadown every week. But there is no way I'm benching either of them now after they the year they have given me.
I have the Bucs and Dallas and I’m not really sure
Ugh me too, been holding Tampa for a month now waiting on that Jets matchup. I think I gotta stick with the plan and sit Dallas for them, much as it pains me to say
Gotta go Bucs?! Jets are trash…
Yeah you’re right lol. Although Dallas has been looking great these last few weeks
Easy to look good also feasting on trash! It’s Tampa’s turn
I have Dallas and Saints and will undoubtedly fuck it up
Same dude. I’m so torn. Probably will be a last minute decision
I saved LAC and SF defenses to go back-to-back against HOU in the playoffs. After getting -3.00 from LAC because HOU remembered how to play football, I'm worried about playing SF against them this week. Should SF still be ranked so highly against a HOU team on a mini hot-streak?
SF an actually good defense. LAC not a good defense.
LAC was also without Derwin James and Bosa, arguably their two best DEF players
Curious why you have Wentz so high. Seems like the whole offense runs through JT.
I have Kirk right now, but this is making me consider picking up Wentz. I have JT also, so that makes me nervous
Moot point now unfortunately
Wentz out with covid
Surprised we still arent seeing Dolphins D and seeing 49ers D so high up against a Texans team that has been putting up a decent amount of points over the last two weeks
Does he rank every D/ST or just those widely available? It could be that the dolphins aren’t listed as they aren’t a streaming D.
All defenses. I assume his model weighs season-long performance way more than our recency biased opinions.
Josh johnson at 5? Cmon lol
Thank you for everything this season
I know Stafford had a bad week, but the Ravens just gave up 500+ yards to Burrow. This seems like a low ranking for him
I have Stafford and Lamar.
Whoever I pick will score <10 and the other will rock the high heavens. It is known
Bro honestly. Bless you. I’ve done this fantasy football shit for 5 years now. I made a profile to follow your post. Going to 4 out of 5 years going to the final. You are great help. This whole sub is awesome I’ve drank every koolaid their is one this sub and it has helped for better or worse. Let’s try to get a W and get a third championship in 5 years.
No love for Greg Joseph? Am I missing something here lmao is he not a good play this week?
Playing in GB, with potential bad weather
It’s about to be 5 degrees there. It’ll be like kicking a rock in that environment
Joseph isn’t a top 10 option this week?
I think I'm going to pivot to Hopkins. Weather supposed to be super cold in Green Bay..
Hmm I’ve stuck with Joseph all season and it feels weird not have him in my lineup for the finals lol. Is cold weather that bad for kickers?
It says on my yahoo app that Hopkins is on the Covid list
My average points for K and Def is by far tops in my league. Wouldn’t be in the ‘ship without you.
Do I just start Dallas? They got me here.
So we all know how absolutely terrifying Dallas has been for offenses, would you play SF or Dal this week? I’m projected less than the guy I’m playing in the finals so trying to maximize efforts. I actually had SF in my waivers earlier but having such a tough time not playing DAL.
Am I crazy to keep rolling with the Chiefs against Cincinnati?
Thanks for all your hard work brother it’s been greatly appreciated!
Have Saints and Bills, can’t decide who to play. Anyone have any ideas considering the difference in projection is .1?
I can’t believe people are considering Saints DST for their championship match up. A good DST compliments a good offense. A shitty offenses will gas out a good defense, constantly having the defense on the field. Even with Hill back at QB, Bills offenses is still better and will be on the field longer for the defense to rest.
The hope is that they get olineman back which will make a huge difference. Saints were decimated by covid and there’s no way they can play worse than what we watched last night
The Saints will be getting a lot of players back and are playing the god awful Panthers. They're one of the few defenses I've streamed this year thanks to subvertadown that has never disappointed. I had the Packers go negative on me last week, the Saints haven't gone negative all season. Even last night I still got 9.8 out of them thanks to their ability to get to the QB for sacks. Your point about a shitty offense gassing the defense actually helps the idea that the Saints are startable against Carolina's putrid offense. This isn't like the last time they played in week 2 where Darnold was rolling and they had a fully healthy CMC.
I'm also rolling with the Saints. Panthers offense is significantly worse than the Saints offense with Hill. This is going to be a low scoring game. Miami has been on fire and only put up 13pts vs Saints defense if you don't count that Pick 6 last night. They also humiliated Tom Brady.
Yep, rolling with the Saints over the 49ers. I'm a panthers fan and our offense is a dumpster fire. I would be surprised if both QBs don't contribute to at least one turnover each and sacks are inevitable.
This seems odd to me. Cardinals aren't playing so hot, and the Dallas D is playing fantastic.
It seems they should at least a top 10 play until they show otherwise.
Go with the eagles or pick up the bears??? Big $$$ on the line!
Same here, I think the Giants are the worst team in the NFL and I'm leaning toward Chicago.
Do I stick with the Cowboys D or go with the Saints
Look at it like this. Both play the late game. If opponent (or you) have a bunch of early game players, watch if you need a Boom D (Cowboys) or a Safe D (Saints).
If the Lions could handle AZ, then you better bet your ass I’m sticking with DALLAS
Offensively yes but the D only got 6 points. D/ST has not done well against Cards
Yeah Murray is hard to sack and they can still put up enough points to put a dent in the overall score. Cardinals have been losing but they're not the jets, wft, giants category.
I have Dallas defense and Murray and Edmonds. I'm thinking of picking up the eagles just to avoid the mess of who to root for.
Thanks for everything this season!
Thanks very helpful!
question: are you factoring in Trey Lance as QB for the kickers ranking
I had Gould as a lock but having 2nd thoughts if Jimmy G doesn’t play
He has Garoppolo in his QB rankings so I imagine the kicker rankings are based on that.
in that case the question is: How the absence of JG affect his projection
Slightly panicking about my kicker situation. Have Greg Joseph in an iffy matchup in cold ass GB. Butker is available on WW due to covid last week. Should I pivot? Boswell and Gould are also avaliable.
Thank you for bringing nick folk. I will cherish him forever and he will win me this finals
If you guys had the choice between Gay and Folk, who would you roll with
I like Folk this week. I know he's just had a couple duds, but he's in an absolute smash spot against the Jags. Almost every kicker has blown up against the Jags, and the Pats should have a comfortable lead the entire game, so they won't be passing up kicks on 4th down like the last few weeks.
I'm in the championship in my league thanks in part to these posts.
Thank you for making them.
Guys, should I droo Justin Tucker for Greg Zuerlein? Zuerlein has been way more consistent (in terms of fantasy output) than Tucker over the last 7 weeks. Over that time span Tucker has had three games where he scored less than Zuerleib did in his lowest scoring game over the same time period.
Fuck I’ve been torn between 49ers, Eagles, or Colts D
This doesn’t help my decision
I’m literally in the same boat lol. I still don’t trust the eagles so I’ll wait until Sunday to see how Covid/injuries play out for SF and Indy.
I’ve been set on SF for a while but watching HOU play this weekend sketched me out hard
Decide between the home teams. Niners or Colts. If Waller out and Lance in, I’d go colts. If it’s Jimmy for the niners, I think it’s much closer and may veer niners but Davis mills is proving to not be a push over.
If Judon is out, how much does that lower the Pats?
It's against the jags.
This. Bill lost 2 in a row and will take it out on poor Trevor
Just awesome that you put the time into this. Thank you very much for not putting everything behind a paywall as well. Much appreciated!
I have both Dallas v AZ and Miami vs TEN and both seem like great plays
You’re the man — this column helped my injury-ridden team even make it to the playoffs
Thanks as always! Thoughts on Dallas D vs ARI this week?
Thank you for everything you put into this weekly series - your work is always greatly appreciated!
Where does Trey Lance fit in this? Assuming Jimmy will be out.
Colts or dolphins?
Tucker has gotten me to the Championship but I can't keep playing him with the Ravens QB situation
Yeah I just have so little confidence, might go Badgley over him
I’m in the same boat. May pivot to Succop.
Thank you for all the help, u/subvertadown. You brought me to the ship this year!
I own Lamar, Huntley so I should add Johnson I guess lol
Thank you so much, relied solely on these rankings for kickers and DST all season. I’m in the chip in 3/5 leagues
Thank you for your help this season! I used your rankings to settle on folk early in the year and would stream defenses.
Give me a reason why I shouldnt start the Dolphins defense at this point. I can't find one right now.
WE LOVE SUBVERT
As others have said, thank you for your hard work and help this season. These charts have been great.
Appreciate the time you put in, big dog. You’re a god.
So glad to have drafted Rogers late. TB12 would have been better ofc, but he still is always underrated. Dude can put up a 30pt game at any time.
I always seemed to pick the top ranked defense each week that went against the projections, but ultimately that's the name of the game.
Awesome work all season. I hope you keep doing it; I'm happy to keep contributing to your work.
Surprised to see saints over the bucs
Thanks man. See you next season!
So Lance over Taysom Hill this week?
Have Pats and Niners
I’m between Colts, Titans and maybe Bears. Feels like with Wentz out, Colts might be a riskier play, so maybe slightly leaning Titans.
And for some reason I do not want to hand over the keys to the championship to the bears defense. Just doesn’t feel right.
No Dolphins or Cowboys? That seems silly seeing as both of those Ds have been on a tear right now and likely helped get a lot of people in to their championship games
I can go Bears or Eagles. What do you guys think? I’m a Giants fan and I know just how bad they are, but I’ll be a little more concerned if they start Glennon. He’s trash but Fromm was so much worse.
Bears have a solid D. giants are a dumpster fire. I’ve been holding the bears for this game since they random redditer said he heard from the owners grandsons acquaintance told his grandpa that Jones was out for the year.
Thank you for everything this season king 🙏👑
Hurts or Dak? So tough.
Thank so much!
Some feedback if you’re interested:
* I see week 15 is bolded in the flex tab
* Would it be possible to freeze the first column on the flex tab? Now that it’s late in the season it’s hard to line up which row is which on mobile
* Would you expect cardinals TE to be higher with Hopkins still out?
Thanks for all that you do!
Appreciate all the help this year, this has been a great source. Trying to decide between the Pats or Bucs D this week is a struggle, though.
Am I crazy for sticking with Colts D?
Patriots D with Zuerlein as my kicker seems more or less as good as it gets. Glad I planned in advance, hope it pays off. Diolch for the help this season, much appreciated!
Thoughts on the Saints chances vs Carolina??
I've been riding the Dolphins DST for weeks, is it time to pivot to the Bears for the Ship?
I feel like I want to roll with the Eagles over the 49ers. Holding both
Legend, thank you for the season
I’m going with the Bears D this week for all the money… only options I have on my team are KC or AZ and both don’t have great matchups. Hoping for another Fromm egg against the Bears!
Thank you for your service!
Also, I’m torn and can’t decide between the Bills or Saints D.
I don't see how KC didn't atleast make the list
Is Huntley a good play if no lamar? It's him vs mac Jones/Hill on the wire.