By - subvertadown
Not getting sucked into Eagles again.
Honestly there is no Defense you can guarantee points from, it's too volatile. I have the Eagles and I am playing them with confidence against a broken team in the Giants with Fromm at QB. This franchise should look completely different from top to bottom next year and are just riding out the string.
Also there aren't any good defenses available in my league.
For what it’s worth - Fromm actually did alright when he came out. He did still fold underage pressure of a bad O-Line, which is going to happen a lot… But I don’t think he’s a step down.
Still should be a safe choice, but I won’t be 100% surprised if Fromm steps up.
I feel like they still have a safe floor tho right? Not sure who I'd roll out over them on waivers...
They almost lost me my matchup last night. Luckily my lord and savior Cooper Kupp was able to get me my win.
Really debating finding a new defense this week.
Same here. I’m trying to get the Colts, but I’m pretty far down on the WW order, so it may end up being the Saints instead.
I have kupp, mark Andrews....and I've really been liking Patterson SANS last game...a big reason because he's WR/RB and I can slot him wherever.
How'd that work out
I swear there’s an Eagles defense conspiracy. I’ve never witnessed them do well, but their stats aren’t bad. I’ve streamed them like ten times the past 2 years and been burned or disappointed every damned time. But most other D’s I stream based on Subvertadowns rankings do better.
The only conclusion is that someone is retroactively changing their stats and rewriting history. Don’t believe the stats…
I’m still playing them though.
Eagles lost me my matchup
Not sure what y'all's scoring is, but the Eagles put up 4 points for me. What are you looking for from a D? Is that really getting suckered?
I'm hoping for 8+ points from my D. But just happy if it's more than 0. Haha. A good D in my league will score mid double digits, rarely will you see 20+. I'd say average pts is around 6-8. D's are so random with scoring.
See, that's what I'm saying. Not getting negative points is what I go to subvertadown for.
4 is terrible lol
I mean, good luck predicting who'll get double digits every week. I don't mind letting someone do the math to tell who won't go negative.
Last week, only 8 defenses got less than 4 points and only 2 defenses went negative.
12 defenses got double digits.
The point is you can't trust Eagles D, even during easy matchups
Well that's fair. Although last week was an anomaly not seen since 1994.
Well, fuck. Here we go again with the Eagles.
As a Giants fan, fire them tf up lol. Mike Glennon is asscheeks, Jake Fromm? Buttcheeks. Maybe 10 points are scored by NY. 5 sacks and 2 picks wouldnt shock me either.
Clap clap goes the cheeks
I have no trust in the Eagles or the Saints and yet there they are, 2 of the top 3 streaming projections.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, can’t get fooled again.
Why not Saints? They just shut out Brady and looked good doing it.
They've been all over the place with performance this year, playing poorly against bad teams but sometimes playing really well against good teams. Their offense worries me too because if it stalls out or Hill starts turning the ball over, it puts the Saints D in a tough spot. And with a few exceptions, they've let teams score points and gain yards all year, so without numerous sacks or turnovers their floor is really bad.
I don’t trust them either. But let’s be real their score yesterday was a result of one of the most improbable INTs in league history leading to a TD, and hurts fumbled and gave Washington another short field
So mainly you’re counting on hurts to not be a dummy with the ball this week I’d say, which is hard since last time vs the giants he was abysmal
Sub has been way too high on Eagles and way too low on Cowboys for a while now.
Cowboys defense is it for this week. Being a Cardinals fan, I'm waiting to see if they right the ship this week before I decide on them against the Cowboys.
I'm gonna. And I don't like it
thoughts on why Eagles D has been consistently underperforming in good matchups the past 3 weeks and why they would be a good play this week?
>why Eagles D has been consistently underperforming in good matchups
They aren't very good at fantasy dst. Our pass rush is just good enough to pressure the passer into bad or quick throws but not good enough to actually get a lot of sacks. Every strip or FF always bounces to the offense so we don't get any points for those.
Our offense gives away the ball too much and gives opponents short fields to score.
The secondary is bad at giving up long plays but good at underneath plays. Basically the meager points you get from the 1 or 2 pick they'll get a game ain't good enough if the opponent will score 14 or more points every game.
>why they would be a good play this week
They won't, you're betting on Slay undercutting a route to get a pick 6 for a decent week.
Nice analysis. I think the quick summary is a lack of play makers.
The amount of forced fumbles with no recoveries last game was wild
NFC East fuckery
Addition by subtraction. Sometimes there are no good decisions, only bad & worse(SEE: Covid Living)
I will say they only let up 17 points and one of the TDs was off the freak INT that hit off of Goedert’s foot that gave Washington the ball in great field position. If that doesn’t happen good chance they only let up 10 points
Lmao to a 4th string qb and a team decimated by covid
Giants starting qb is done & Mike Glennon starting in his place. I'm comfortable with starting eagles D this week.
How did that work against a 4th string QB who was on the team for a week?
Wouldn't be surprised if Jake Fromm gets most of the snaps and surprises because there's not much NFL tape on him after Glennon was benched last week.
cowboys have just been so good i can’t bench them even tho some of these other options are available
do not bench the cowboys
Even over the Bucs.
This is my dilemma. I stocked piled D even though I had NE all season (more so to keep them away from other playoff teams). I now have NE, DAL and TB. Played Dal last week and will play Ne in week 17. Don’t know if I start Dal or TB this week.
Why would you? Fuck these projections. Cowboys are clearly the best fantasy defense. They get an insane amount of sacks and interceptions. They had been playing without Randy Gregory & Demarcus Lawrence for a bunch of weeks, and they’re still the #1 defense in fanatasy, playing the sorry ass redskins. Cowboys D is a start over every other defense
I have both the Pats and Cowboys defenses, rolling with the boys this week but Pats vs Jags next week is the best championship play I can think of at DEF.
TB at NYJ should be bussin next week
Going all in on the Saints
Hoping to grab them! Currently have bills but would keep them for week 17 if I win
Edit: also hurts and folk! Let's gooooooooo
Would you start Saints over Chiefs?
Literally the dilema I’m having. I slightly prefer the Chiefs at home…
I’ve decided Chiefs. As a Bucs fan, I know the Saints always overperform against us so I’m not overestimating last week. And Chiefs have been getting pressure, Ben is a statue, and if they go up big, Steelers will be chasing the game.
Yep. This week is a little less good. But I will take it with the juicy week 16-17
Chargers or Saints D?
Chargers this week. Saints next week
I’ve got saints and 49ers. No clue what to do
Saints or Cowboys?
This is the first projection I’ve seen that doesn’t have MIA top 5. Interesting
Top 5 against the Saints... @ New Orleans? Not sure why they should be honestly
The saints mustered 9 points last week and Miami is on a winning streak coinciding with great defensive performances?
9 pts against the Bucs and without Payton, don't read too much into last week performance man.
Following that same logic, the Saints won 30-9 against the Jets whereas Miami won 31-24. People shouldn't be that high on Miami DST truly
Maybe. But taysom is turnover prone, and Miami has been playing good D. I don't think it's a bad matchup
Because Miami have done well against running QBs since they switched to a blitz heavy approach.
Would taysom be a bad play over Russ this week you think?
Supposed to be snowing in Seattle this weekend too
Not at all. There is plenty of support for this play.
Taysom is possibly the only QB who you can consider starting both him and the defense against him. He will give up INTs and sacks, but will also get a ton of rushing yards and a running TD or two.
And Russ is washed for the season. I feasted with the Russ and DK stack early in the season, but now I haven't been starting Russ, and I hate starting DK but I don't have any other options...
That absolute juggernaut of the Saints offense scares me away from Miami this week
Climbed all the way up to 3rd now
SF and Miami aren’t as high as I thought they would be. I think they’re both good plays this week.
I think I'm sticking with SF over Saints. SF has been solid
Not worried about the titans with AJB back?
Niners have been generating turnovers. Shit we saw the game last week start off with a ST turnover that put ATL on the 10 yard line and the defense held them to 0 points on that drive. They were a bad personal foul away from shutting down the one drive that got a TD. I am confident they will get after Tannehill and generate sacks and at least one turnover.
My guess is they end with 9-11 pts and I dropped eagles D to give them the confidence boost they need lol
9ers over Chargers? I have both. Chargers play HOU this week and 9ers play them next week.
I’m in the same situation this week. Leaning slightly with Chargers but if AJ Brown is ruled out I might switch back in 9ers.
I figured Seahawks would be top 10.
Guys in my league are holding 3 and 4 defenses and the Seahawks are the best available for me. I don't hate it
Right?! I have Seahawks and eagles DST … and I have Seahawks D starting right now-hate that this is making me think of starting Eagles D. Seattle has been playing good D and Chicago looked very bleh Monday night
Im right there with you. Carrying Seattle and NE. NE has a dream matchup with Jax for finals if you make it and Chicago was so hard to watch the other day so im gonna roll with Seattle this week. Nice little plus is Seattle has Detroit for finals if you wanna go that route or just hold them to block your opponent.
I thought the same when they played the Texans and it cost me a bye. Fuck em
Plus it will be snowing in seattle.
Ugh top rated D/ST available for me is... the Jags.
I might just roll with the Bills again. Dammit
I grabbed the Jags last week to see how they would respond with Urban gone and a good matchup against HOU, they didn’t get it done and I have no reason to believe they can get it done against the Jets. That was my test and they failed.
The Bills have gotten us this far. I can't get off the train now!
Packers or Miami?
I’m dealing with the exact same dilemma. Kinda leaning towards Miami since they’ve been pretty solid and the Packers put up negative points last week
Same holds for me. I'm leaning GB, especially if CLE is still having COVID issues. MIA's bread and butter is their pass rush/sack rate, but NO will be tougher to get those on with a mobile QB (and it's at the Superdome).
I take the home team.
Niners or chargers?
Without bosa and or James I’m rolling 49ers
Eagles were over Bucs last week too and I went Bucs. Going them again just don’t trust Eagles. And I’m a birds fan
That’s as good a reason as any to NOT trust them. Us fans know how we play down to our comp
Chargers seems like a trap
Why so? Very curious.
Bosa, Derwin, and now a starting CB are out
Not sure about Prater anymore as the ARI offense seems to be in a flunk... Anyone else?
Its not just that theyre in a funk, they love going for it (and failing) on fourth down. Aka, td or bust; aka 0 or 1 point for prater on those drives. And again, theyve been choking on those plays so its been 0's.
I'm sticking with him, I know last week was next level bad for that offense but he still did ok considering the game script. I have a hard time believing the offense is actually falling off. All he needs is a deep one plus some PATs to have a solid day which seems more likely than not
We still trust in Folk right?
I would rather play Folk, have him suck, and lose rather than explain to my league why I benched the number one kicker in FF this year and have it potentially end my playoff run.
Its a kicker not a stud wr like AJ Brown or some other position player. Buffalo is good enough on offense to not allow short fields/play ball control/cause NE to abandon fgs if things get out of hand.
They are strong enough on defense to stifle a enemic dink and dunk rooke led pats offense with little to no weapons some of which are hurt. Plus it might rain.
Pick a kicker with:
1. High implied total
2. Favored to win
3. Dome/no wind
4. Accurate kicker/passing offense
5. Away team to avoid crowd pressure on 4th.
I will not give up on the man who won me multiple games this year
I wouldn't trust him been saying it all year long look at his game log against good teams.
New Orleans- 8 pts
Tampa Bay- 5 pts
Dallas- 3 pts
Chargers- 15 pts
Tenn- 21 (i personally do not think this is a good team just product of a cupcake schedule)
Buffalo (7 pts)
Indy (5 pts)
He dominates when his team doesnt have to play catch up and be able to get short fields on terrible teams like (miami/jets/Houston/atlanta).
Their offense is not great and Buffalo will hold the ball a lot and possibly cause New England to abandon fgs like last game. On top of that weather looks iffy.
I'm torn between Miami or New Orleans....
I'm in the same boat and I'm rolling Saints. I like the idea of Saints at home against a young QB better than dolphins on the road against Taysom and Kamara. Could change my mind by monday though lol
Just wait and see who gets COVID by Friday!
Thanks for all you do 🤗 even without all the fun analysis, this has been great. Always appreciated reading your breakdowns
Dak can't suck 4 weeks in a row right...? This is making me want to stick with him over Huntley assuming Lamar is still out otherwise this doesn't matter
Dak lost me a bye week and then a playoff game. I wouldn't start him.
Bengals D now that Huntley is out or stick with Eagles D this week?
I’m going Bengals
No Seahawks? They played pretty well against the Rams and the Bears make so many bad mistakes.
All I want for Christmas is for Herbert to avoid getting Covid this week. Backup QB tested positive yesterday
Oh god, please no.
I'm in the playoffs and I'm sitting at a point I just can't lose a player that essential. If he's out, I'm hoping Lamar Jackson gets another week off so I can grab Huntley and go all in for the playoffs with him
I don’t actually have Herbert, but I have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams who will both be starting since I also have Tyreek Hill who just got Covid. If Herbie gets sick, I’m fucked for my championship week. I’ve been furiously refreshing this sub waiting for the news to break
Hill is vaccinated so it's possible he plays. Man I really hope he plays.
Why is Dak so highly rated?
Well, my D/ST, Kicker and QB are all top two according to this post.
Which means they'll all have bottom half scores...
u/subvertadown you are the fucking man! Thank you!
I'm riding with Greg Joseph, hoping Rams stall Kirk in the RZ
I'm afraid vikings won't even make it to the redzone very much. I'm pivoting to McPherson this week
At the very least they'll score in the 1st quarter. And then slowly foe get how they did it or how to do it again as the game goes on.
Struggling with who to start. Chargers D or Niners D…
Oh Dak what are we going to do with you
Anyone else sticking to 49ers DST? They've been really solid and I'm having a hard time trusting Saints for some reason
I was planning on holding 49ers until next week and playing Falcons this week against Detroit. Now I don't know what to do. May just roll with SF.
Why are Bengals not in the mix here? I like that matchup a lot.
Didn't the Ravens do quite well against a solid Packers D? Packers got 1 sack, two fourth down stops.
Bengals shit them down during the last matchup. Held Lamars Ravens to 17 points iirc. AFCN matchup with the division title on the line. It’s going to be a bloodbath
Ravens and Huntley looked pretty good last week...I'm starting Chargers against Houston this week, gonna drop Bengals for Chicago against NYG next week (Bengals get KC)
Eagles.. chiefs.. or Saints?
Rolling with the Chiefs and a prayer
If KC isn’t riddled by COVID I would go with them. KC at home against old man Ben with extended rest. Good games recently. I need to decide between Pats (start your studs?), Saints, and KC. Would then need to drop Gay or Folk… yea I have two kickers I was worried about COVID.
The Steelers and Ben are notoriously horrible when playing away from home. I’m rolling out chiefs with a fair amount of confidence.
Between the Eagles and Saints myself. Leaning towards the Saints.
Hurts was awful last time he played the Giants. Is there a reason for optimism this time around?
Did you watch the game? He definitely wasn't the best but he left part of the way through the game due to injury
I didn't watch the game but the play by play says he was in on the last drive. I do remember that it was after this game that the ankle injury came out so maybe he was playing hobbled?
This might be the week I drop Bass. Been close a few times & Zuerlein's sitting there on waivers, seeing him rated the best ROS option has tempted me to put a claim in. Appreciate the work u/subvertadown always a highlight to see these posts!
I’m having the same dilemma right now
Bears or colts next week? Thinking colts bc they actually make plays
As a Chargers fan I wouldn’t rely on them in fantasy without Bosa and for sure would pivot elsewhere if Derwin James is out again with a hamstring
I have a choice between them and Saints and both could be fine or bad.
Joey Bosa being out is a big factor though
I have the eagles and the Bucs, definitely going with the Bucs
This has been so helpful all year, thanks Sub 🙏
I'm rolling Eagles one league and Cowboys my other ROS. Practically no viable options on waivers this late in the year for either league, but I'm happy to sit with these two
Chiefs it is
Holding 49ers for week 17
Saints D or Chargers D against Houston this week???
Eagles or packers?
Am i really using Falcons for a semifinals game 😖
No Seahawks vs. Chicago? That's a surprise to me. I'd way rather roll with them than the Jags or Falcons.
Is anyone rolling with the Broncos against LV? I’ve got them and the Eagles rostered.
How do we feel about Pats D against Buffalo?
Full send. I’m not benching them
LET THIS BE THE HOUR WHEN WE DRAW SWORDS TOGETHER!
I’d rather die with the Pats then bench them. They’ve gotten me this far.
Had NO D/ST with Pats on deck for next week vs. JAX.... with the Saints QB COVID news, I don't think I can fire them up with confidence on MNF, so.... my playoff semi final fate will be in Bill's hands, vs. Buffalo. We ride at dawn.
Appreciate all the work you do! Have a great holiday season
One goat greeting another. You love to see it. Happy holidays to you both and thank you for everything you've done for this community in 2021.
I have the colts and the 49ers. The way the cardinals bene playing I’m leaning towards the colts
Y’all still rolling with Folk?
My confidence in him is shaken after last week.
Also supposed to be windy and rainy in NE Sunday.
Yeah I think I’ll just stick with the Bucs over the Eagles
Went Eagles over Bucs this week and lost because of it. Still stings
Man is this the time to ditch Boswell? No one likes to kick Fgs against the chiefs.
Zuerlein, Elliot, Badgley, Hopkins, McPherson all available.
Lead me to the promise land, Bucs!!!!
u/subvertadown why has the playoffs sheet been updated with blank scores for the 49ers?
Jags and Jets in the top 10, will I be crazy enough to start one of them over the 9ers??
You couldn't pay me to play the Jets or Jags in a playoff round, even if they are playing each other
Blah blah blah rankings
Let's get to the real conversation; how do we all chip in and buy you a badass Christmas gift?
Going to try and grab Bucs since I feel like I have to go Bucs over Chargers. Chargers D seems like a trap tbh.
Saints or the fooking eagles again???
Nah, I'm just starting the damn Colts lol.
Could go 9ers or Chargers this week, but I think I’d rather trust the colts, they’ve been so good.
Just wanna say thank you so much for this I appreciate your content so much! Happy holidays!
Nahh, not doing this again lol. I dropped the Saints for Eagles last week. Just put in a waver claim to get Saints back.
Starting the colts d this week vs the cards, who have been worse at home than on the road. Colts have also been super consistent for the most part.
need some help with deciding on streaming a QB. Have had Wilson and I think he has a decent matchup at home vs the Bears and there middle of the road DEF. I could see it turn into more of a running low scoring slug fest ad Seattle has seemed to be content with leading by 1 score and slowing down.
Burrow and Taysom Hill are on waivers. I think both may have more upside and the defenses they play are are fairly medicore. MIA shows flashes here and there. I know Hill has upside but I think he really is risky and his decent numbers have been saved by 4th quarter scores when good.
Burrow showed be a decent QB1 against a not great Baltimore DEF. He just seems to hold the ball a little too long and take sacks which my league gives -2 per sack. so 3 sacks erases 1 TD.
I held Wilson because the matchup....now I'm debating rolling the dice for a higher upside option. Any thoughts or suggestions? Thx guys! Merry Christmas!
I’m taking my chances on the upside of Burrow. Russ takes sacks too and chicago D gets after it and you’re right that they just wanna run and play slow.
Are you going to post your spread picks for the week like you did week 14?
I thought of posting the O/U picks this time, I just need to finish generating the supporting content.... (But no, not the spreads this time)
O/U would be dope! Thanks for everything you do
Drop Joseph for Koo? Drop Bengals DST for Falcons? I think Boyle is worse than Josh Johnson and the Falcons should move the ball on DET.
Eagles defense and Matt Gay kept me alive despite starting Stafford and Jrob, and im projected to win.
Thanks for all you do!
Just curious but how can you keep saying eagles when they keep playing terribly against bad teams? Can your model be updated or what?
Same with Dak.
Rolling into the finals with Hurts, Dallas D, and Folk. Couldn’t be more sure of my chances. Dallas D in particular has been a godsend
Ride till I die with subvertadown, trusting eagles
Gonna stick with the Eagles...
1) NYG has the lowest implied team total in Vegas.
2) It's at home this time, and the Eagles fans will be yelling loudly and angrily at those evil Giants.
3) Subvertadown has confirmationed my ownership bias, so instead of trying to think about the seahawks or the 49ers or the patriots or the chargers or whatever... just gonna do the thing.
4) Most of y'all are avoiding them.