Who's got the balls to start the Jaguars D?

Hell no

Yeah, I'm not. Still fuming from week 1. There are SO many good options this week, it should be easy to stream others.

Burned week 1 here as well.

Yea think I’ll take my chances with the Vikings sadly

Daily line up I'm gonna do it since they're so cheap

Yeah they're a good budget DFS pick, but other than that keep away.

Me

They’ve been awful. Curious why they’re a better play then Houston in that game? Or even the Rams or Broncos/Bengals

Our defense keeps us in most of these games, but the offense completely squanders that.

I even think Eagles this week is ballsy. They look awful and Washington looks improved

Haha I was just coming to make the same comment

I’m doing it, yolo

I did in week 12 vs Atl. Got 4 points, but Colts (who I picked up in anticipation of starting week 13) only had 3 that week, so I guess it worked?

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Pretty surprised. They’re consistently good and Ravens offense is Sus

Just this I dropped the rams last night they were on my bench and grabbed Miami as a FA so now I have Miami & GB rostered

I have Miami, GB, and the 49ers.

Pretty good combo. I’ve KC and Packers for those Ravens and Steelers oline feast.

That’s what I’m thinking too. Does u/subvertadown ‘s model account for the backup QB??

Yes, the question is whether betting lines account for it.

Awesome. Thanks for your work

Packers D is solid and Huntley shredded us far more than Lamar did through the air FWIW, guys still shifty too, don’t think it’s as much of a downgrade as people think fantasy-wise. Considering starting him as my Lamar replacement lol. The guy looked good and the offense hummed better -Browns fan

Ya what gives??

I can't trust Eagles after the last 3 bad games they had against some of the worst teams

The Eagles only have 4 sacks over the past 5 games. That's the lowest amount in the entire league... I don't think this can be overlooked. They are tied for 3rd lowest sacks throughout the season as well. Most of their good fantasy performances came from a pick 6, which really isn't sustainable.

Yeah if you can't find anybody better, sure roll with the Eagles. They will probably get you 5 But I wouldn't trust them over any other good matchup

Its Eagles or vikings for me. Feels pretty even, but I'm considering vikings now. Didn't know that about the low sack count

I know on paper they have 2 good matchups coming up. But division games, especially the NFC East, never make any sense.

Yeah and the Washington offense has looked surprisingly competent. My original plan of stashing the Eagles D for the playoffs is done and now I'm just gonna stream again. If I don't get Miami this week then I'm gonna try and grab 49ers and Chargers.

WFT looked horrible last game so *maybe* it would work out But the Eagles defense is no where near the Cowboys

Think im rolling with Prater + Eagles D/ST For next 2 weeks minimum. Thanks sub for all your work this season now lets go win a championship

I’m torn. There was another DST post yesterday and everyone was saying to stay away from Eagles DST.

I had them during Giants/Jets and they did nothing special

Same

Eagles D is reliant on TDs. Without them, they are pretty average. Eagles fan here, and I've seen other similar thoughts from other fans too.

Big play Slay could show out at any time, I like the Eagles D I think they’re a good stash

So we’re back to Folk RoS right? Saw he was dropped presumably cuz of the bye

We were before and still are now. If he was foolishly dropped you go get him asap.

I played without a defense so that I could stream a kicker and not drop Folk lol

I’m still really nervous about the weather. Traditionally NE and Buffalo players are risky plays at the end of the season.

Folk is @ Indianapolis this week

Gotta be weary of those dome storms.

I think some of the volatility EoS for the Pats historically was the fact that they were in the driver's seat for the top spot in the AFC year after year. So they were playing to not get injured rather than fighting for the top spot. Obviously that's not the case this year. And being a native Bostonian, I don't think the weather will have much impact for Folk to be honest.

I picked up butker and held folk, now im not sure who to drop

Same with Prater and Folk...

Haha same with Joseph+Folk

Didn’t pick up anyone last week to avoid this dilemma lol rolling w the guy who got me here (folk)

It seems like Gay might be rated higher ROS so I'm going to try and hold both.

I'm Folk RB1 RoS

Folk has been set and forget all season, no one should have dropped him

Surprised to not see packers up there with Lamar being questionable and how many sacks ravens give up.

I read that they're saying Lamar is playing already. Although who knows how mobile he'll be.

Even better, his passing sucks, and now he won't be able to run as much if at all

I'm just rolling with the niners for the playoffs. don't trust bad D's even in good matchups

Same here. SF put up 9 pts in my league against CIN last week. I would expect them to at least match that against ATL this week.

I have niners and eagles, I am rolling with niners despite the rank difference

I'm in the same boat, and I'm leaning SF as well - they've been putting up better points over the last 5 weeks, have been holding opponents to less points, and ATL has been giving up slightly more fpts to opposing DSTs than WFT over the last few weeks.

Ive got Cowboys D with 9ers D stashed in the event I make it to week 17

Same! Have had that plan for awhile.

Yup, it’s a solid plan. And the Cowboys have been making me very happy lately haha

Yes! Them dismantling Washington gave me so much confidence in starting them at home in week 16.

Yeah exactly. I was excited to start them this week against the Giants but I somehow lucked into a bye so I guess I don’t have to worry about that haha

I never touch a defense over 20th even with a great matchup

I’m trying to figure out which DST to stash and can’t decide between Eagles and 49ers for Week 17. Already have Chargers DST for their Houston matchup week 16.

Niners are a bit better defense and have a comparably easy schedule like the Eagles ATL > TEN > HOU

Yea I just have a hard time trusting the Eagles if I make the championship. Might go SF for now and if the Eagles are still there in a week or two I can try and nab them too. Edit: just realized that Chargers and 49ers is the perfect pair since I have a 1st round bye.

Feels wrong starting Eagles over Bucs

Feels even more wrong considering Jags over Bucs.

True lmao wtf. Would never do that.

Greg Joseph has been great, but on the road @Chicago has me nervous. Are 10 mph winds and 30 degrees on MNF enough to affect the kicking?

10 mph wind is barely windy, that's less than a summer thermal breeze at the beach.

Yes. Minnesota in Chicago on MNF has historically been a death trap for that team

QB9?! I shredded KC for 281 pass yards and 4 TDs last time. SMH

You tell em, Justin.

Keep sleeping on me. Maybe when I kill it ROS and playoffs people will give me the respect I have earned and consider me an elite option.

It's not a knock on Herbert. Chiefs D are playing on another level since the first match.

They are but I'm going to expose the fuck out of them. Then we both will be 9-5 and we will have tie breaker

Hope so, I'm starting Herbert and Mike Williams this Thursday

Ditto

Justin, is this really you?!

Guide me to the 'ship good sir! You and Ekeler (stack) have saved my ass multiple times this year...notably against JT's nuclear game some weeks back. You. Are. A. Stud.

Consider it done.

⚡BOLT UP ⚡

You're the only QB on my roster and you've been killing it! I start you every week. Thank you #10!

Thank you u/Bilbo10baggins for the support.

Thank you for carrying me to the playoffs

Anytime

Remember we said whenever you’re ranked low you go off? Top 5 this week let’s go

No one else riding with Carlson ROS? I dropped folk and regretted it ever since. Scared to do the same with Daniel

I’m keeping him. Everyone has a bad week sometimes. Hes been #2 all year and underrated all year somehow.

Owned him a lot. Great K on an inconsistent offense. Carr ruins Carlson’s weeks too often for me. I swapped for Greg the Leg.

What are people thinking for Week 16 DST?

I'm holding on to the two teams playing Houston, Chargers & 49ers.

If your waiver wire is bare, maybe bengals vs ravens. Ravens are injured and Lamar is giving out turnovers left and right, so they can be a good B-tier optino

Patriots DEF seems low despite being the best fantasy def, coming off a bye, and Beli having time to scheme against Indy.

Patriots D/ST holders…are we still riding this train? I have a waiver claim in for Miami but am hesitant to deviate from the Pats DEF.

I'd ride or die with the Pats. I think their defense is THAT good -- I'm starting them next week as well against the Bills. I'd rather lose with them than panic about my streamer defense failing.

I feel the same. I learned long ago that I would rather ride the horse who got me there, and if they totally bomb, then so be it. It's better than seeing them blow up on my bench. I'd rather not get cute and try to play matchups. I promise if you bench the Pats and they go off (even against the Bills) you will hear a hundred people on here with revisionist history saying they can't believe anyone would bench the #1 DEF in FF.

Gay or Folk ROS?

Folk

Really can’t go wrong with either imo.

Gay

Leaning him due to bad weather in NE, and Gay has been balling as of late

Game is in Indianapolis

Next two are in NE

I stack NE DST and Kicker

San Fran feels kinda slept on this week. Can definitely see them causing all sorts of havoc against ATL.

Do you know if there's an update to their cornerback situation?

Commenting to follow for this update as well.

Commenting to follow as well

Hh

Thanks for all the analysis and data that you post. I just wanted to share that your hard work is really appreciated so thank you from me :) Also your correlation analysis on stacks its awesome.

Thanks so so much!

Would it be worth to start Jimmy over Lamar if Lamar is healthy? I'm wondering how much his ankle could affect his play.

Jake Elliot or Ryan Succop? Thinking of Succop for a more reliable floor.

I can’t trust the Jags

No big leg Mcpherson?

Why are the niners ranked so low? I have them eagles and Vikings and am feeling the niners.

Thanks again for putting this together.

Zuelein or Folk ROS? Can some please explain how the kicker ranks work now? I’m a bit confused by the sheet.

Where are my fellow Bills D owners at? Have the Packers for next week but Carolina this week and Atlanta in Week 17 is juicy as hell. Hoping to ride them to glory.

I feel like you never get the credit you deserve. As someone from Europe who doesn't really get all the storylines, I love this post every week and your statistical approach. If there is a charity you support or something else, I would drop some money for christmas. Keep up the good work!

I’m pretty sure /u/subvertadown has a link you can donate to somewhere! And just wanted to say I agree! These posts have gotten me into the playoffs the past few years. Love your work and so, so appreciate it!

49ers should not be below Jags, Eagles, Browns.

Thank you

Anyone starting McPherson in Denver? Scared about the weather

It’s 62 calm and sunny right now.

And tomorrow we are getting 60+ gusts.

Good thing they play on Sunday.

Then I'm not sure why it matters that it's 62 and calm right now?

How come JAX is there but HOU isnt even top 10? Mr Lawrence just threw 4 ints, also JRob getting 6 carries the whole game..

What about Carlson with this Browns COVID outbreak now? Any change? He burned me last week but he's really only busted against KC since like Week 5. Bass, Prater, Elliott, Sanders are the listed ones still out there.

U got me twice with eagles dst. u won’t get me a third…

Why do I keep seeing this, they got like 6/7 points the last couple weeks. They didn’t win you a week but it wasn’t negative points or something. I’m not expecting my D to win me my matchup, and I don’t want them losing me my matchup either. Seems like a perfectly fine play to me.

Going into second round of playoffs this week(after eliminating my wife in first round, lol I'm in danger). Should I drop Bass for Folk? And Packers for Dolphins or Cardinals?

Folk is the #1 kicker so yes.

Holy shit, every single QB listed is taken in my league. Looks like I'm stuck with Carr lmfao

Eagles or 49ers?

In one league I'm riding 49ers D all the way and in the other it's Cowboys D. Love those matchups.

How many people are benching Dak for Jimmy G or Tua this week? I feel like it's the right play but I'm too scared to sit Dak haha.

Thanks for doing this! It truly is appreciated!

Seattle or Eagles for week 16?

Help - I have a bye this week so only need 16 and 17. I’m holding 49ers, Chargers, Miami and need to drop 1. I think 49ers are the best for w17 but not sure on 16

why are the 49rs so low vs atl?

I am going with them. Falcons at west coast vs a 49ers pushing for playoffs

yup! i’m starting them over the eagles

Is there a reason why Elliott dropped off your top picks for this week? He was there earlier but now gone.

First model where I’m seeing a legit QB streamer option above Dak as it should be after the last several weeks (Jimmy G). I think I’m gonna start Jimmy over Dak, but also considering Fields or Kirk. Surprised Kirk is so low here. I know he struggles in prime time, but curious what factors have him so low this week

[Yolo](https://i.imgur.com/YBg3lNN.png)

FOLK AND MIAMI D TO THE SHIP MOTHERFUCKERS

Should I drop cam to add Big Ben? Battling to not get last rn.

Drop cam for anyone imo... he's just going to get benched after throwing 2 INTs

Do I really start Kyler over Justin Herbert? Kylers got a good matchup but Herbert been on fire…

Yes you do.

Especially with how Chiefs D has looked

I think I’m going to Herbert over Kyler. Herbert’s been playing better and Kyler is banged up.

Prater or zurelien?

Been using this the last several weeks and have had defense scores of 16+ since week 10, with cowboys and pats held for playoff push. Thanks Subvertadown for the assist

I’m rolling Dallas and Butker who I just picked up because Daniel Carlson did me dirty this week.

Colts or packers?

Dak vs taysom is gonna be tough

Taysom 100%

Starting dolphins this week. Anyone think broncos Might be a good play week 16 against the raiders? Looking for confirmation bias only

Either them or the Bengals for me. But since I already have Broncos I'm leaning that way. Bias confirmed my friend.

My league is a 10 team 5 bench spots, and both the Bills and Bucs defense owners dropped them. I already had the chargers for week 14, so I scooped both up for the playoffs. I’m pretty excited for the playoffs.

Eagles, Browns, Colts or Vikings? I’ve tried Eagles before and they let me down. Colts seem like the best defense but not a great matchup.

Dolphins are on waivers, drop bills D for them? Got Eagles D on my roster too

Only Jaguars & Browns available in my league on this list. Other teams hoarding defenses. Thought Bengals vs Broncos was the play according to fantasy pros, welp

Cowboys D finally made it.

Holding the Eagles DST through the bye for week 16. Any suggestions on who to stash for week 17?

How is no one talking about the Bengals? Here are the last 4 weeks: @ LV - 2 sacks, 1 Fumble, 1 INT, 13 points allowed vs PIT - 3 sacks, 1 Fumble, 2 INTs, 1 TD, 10 points allowed vs LAC - 4 sacks, 2 Fumbles, 1 INT, 35 points allowed vs SF - 5 sacks, 1 Fumble, 26 points allowed In my format that's 10, 19, 6, and 5 points. Granted, that's not incredible the past two weeks, but if you're chasing a DST who makes points those sack numbers give an excellent shot at creating points. I probably would take some of the top teams listed over these guys, but I do like them a lot vs Denver. I dunno, maybe I'm crazy.

Kc or NE def for ROS?

Great charts

allen #1 even with foot sprain?

Folk or Prater this week and ROS? It’s playoffs for me

I have prater but i would go with folk if i had him

Happy to not see Lamar on this list. I’ve had him all season and he’s only been great for like 2-3 games. Everything else is just a mediocre QB. 60/0 rushing stats don’t matter if you only throw for 1 TD. On my do not draft list but will likely start him over Taysom and Tua next week.

Shouldn't the packers be higher with Lamar's injury?

Just wanted to say really appreciate these posts and you’ve definitely carried me to the playoff bye with random dst and folk being my rb2. Much love buddy

Beating myself up man. 49ers defense or Eagles defense this week? I live and die by the chart but man I wanna play 49ers so bad this week. Anybody wanna give some input please

in same situation... leaning 49ers

now leaning eagles with qb news...

Cardinals not in top 10 at all?

What are the best DEF rest of season?

Hey I just want to comment and say thank you for this work. Take care of yourself when feeling burned out.

Another voice chiming in to say I missed you last week and was concerned when you didn’t make a post. Much appreciation for all the hard work and hope you’re taking care of yourself!

I have both Miami and Dallas, but thinking of riding the hot hand with the cowboys. Am i crazy

The Cowboys are the number 2 defense in fantasy, I don't think crazy is the right word to use here.

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I'm going Folk ROS. I think you'd be silly to sit Folk in week 15 in a dome against a respectable defense where they are likely to kick a bunch of FGs

Matt Gay ROS for me. Even with Folk on waivers

Folk on waivers, are you in a league by yourself?

Pats coming off a bye that's not that unusual. I'm in a 12 man league

Had to drop the Miami D in a must-win last week to get into the playoffs and now it’s slim pickings for a Defense. I’ve got Denver and Rams from this week. Is JAX really worth picking up and starting? Houston, Cinci, Titans, Pitt also available

I have Denver and Rams too. I’m not picking up Cleveland or Jacksonville. Going to roll with the Rams vs Seattle. Not trying to get cute in week one of the playoffs

Rams looked good last night! People are calling for a high scoring game, but I feel like this isn’t the same Seattle team. If Ramsey plays, I’m hoping that the Rams are good for a few sacks and INT’s vs Russ but their D has been a letdown (in terms of fantasy) at times

I had Prater in my lineup before I had a ~50 lead going into Sunday with the other guy having no one else and dropped him for Folk. It stunk seeing Prater going off, but he's so inconsistent because Kingsbury goes for it on 4th down and Kyler loves running. Prater has a huge leg, but he doesn't get a chance to show it off often. I doubt he'll be needed much against Detroit.

Rest of Prater's games are indoors which is a huge boost. But of course drop him for Folk, only an idiot would drop Folk