By - subvertadown
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Folk has been solid so I’ll ride or die until he chokes two in a row.
Thursday night games are always flukey too. I could see the game ending with something like a 9-15 score.
5 Folk FGs confirmed.
Have you seen the Falcons’ “defense”?
It’s comprised of Diet Aaron Darnold (Grady Jarrett), Deion Jones, and sadness.
I’ll put it like this: this time last week, the Falcons were “in the playoff hunt” and now they’re a bowl of cereal.
I guess my original thought was that each and every time I go into a thursday night game getting cute and over analyzing, I get burned.
I'm riding Folk ROS.
Agreed, I just wanted to make joke because being a falcons fan is hard.
Put some respect on AJ Terrell, then after that yes sadness
Totally agree, he’s playing really well this year. Just couldn’t squeeze it into the joke, attention spans and all that.
Yup, this right here. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Folk has carried me through narrow victories, so I'm sticking with him
The one week I didn’t ride w Folk, I lost lol
pats fan chiming in (who also has folk), this offense is really starting to click and first time in a while BB has trusted a kicker.. dude has consistently proved himself this season and the results on the field speak for themself, pats have been unleashing him to kick 40+ (something they havent done the last few seasons)
How do you type that all out every week? Feel like I’ve been taking it for granted but you’re really a real person doing all that
Wow man, thanks, I really appreciate that.
It absolutely gets intense. All the model development testing, accuracy reporting... it's literally a second job! Luckily, I completed my fine-tuning of models last week. That frees up a bit of time to do stuff like this. But it only really matters if you all notice and get something out of it-- so thanks!
Tons of people (like myself) usually don't comment but it's easily my top post each week. The weeks I stream and trust you I boom, the weeks I go my own way I get boomed.
Gonna post to agree with the above. These posts are always incredible top quality work and it’s much appreciated
Thanks! It makes the work most worth it when I hear it from you guys.
It's always been clear I can never compete here with Twitter re-posts, so you guys make the difference.
In the old days, there was a little "Quality" flair from the odd mod, but I guess that's gone out of style. So thanks again, means a lot.
I also agree with the above. Hardly have time to browse this subreddit anymore but I make it an effort to catch your weekly posts.
Thank you for all that you do!
How did you learn to do this stuff? Are you a data scientist ?
The effort is seriously incredible. I really appreciate reading through these, and the hard work that goes into them
We love you, you are the man
Good interesting read
It's only worth it if you guys actually think so. I appreciate it.
I really enjoyed reading all of it! I've read every week but this has been my favourite one.
Dolphins D/ST upcoming schedule is fuckin JUICY:
@ NYJ, vs. CAR, vs. NYG, Bye, @ NYJ, @ NO
What's up with being so low on dolphins?
defenses have a rough time when their offenses are unpredictable
Will probably keep riding Joseph, as he’s been super consistent. If the Packers offense continues to be meh, that should keep FG opportunities on the table, and their D is good enough to stop drives short of the end zone. Plus playing at home, indoors. Could see 12+ from Greggy boy.
Just a heads up, GB has only given up multiple field goals to one team all year
That’s a good call. But that does include a blowout with all TDs (Saints), a shutout with an end zone pick, and that crazy Bengals game with 100 missed kicks.
You 100% could be on to something, but it could be a fluke too.
My Joseph brother 🤝 It was a good showing.
I was just wondering about the kicker/QB pairing and risk mitigation yesterday, so I appreciate this statistical look at it. Thanks as always for the rankings!
You're welcome! I guess it was well-timed. Thanks for reading.
I can say I am very happy my opponent had the Stafford and Gay paring yesterday!
Why aren’t the Dolphins at top 5? They’ve had two consecutive great performances the past couple weeks and they play the Jets this week
Thoughts on Packers Def? I opted to go with my gut last week and play them after seeing them harass the cardinals and Kyler. They seem to have a very safe floor of around six points?
Their only bad week was week 1. I'm sticking with them, I like the safety in their floor
Panthers are available in my league and their next two games look better otherwise I’d ride with packers as well. I may go back with packers after bye if they’re still available
Yeah it looks like that mid-season slump that they were in has been solved. There's some volatility with Cam that could be scary though, in terms of giving the opposition a short field
I scooped them before their game started Sunday and am trying to get them in my other league. Then I just need to find a D/ST to pair them with for Weeks 13, 15, and 16 (maybe Eagles or Vikings?)
Panthers and Eagles ROS schedules complement really well. Just picked up Eagles for that reason!
Only thing I would say is eventually I think the luck will run out. They just lost two more pass rushers last week and are still starting practice squad caliber corners. As a Packer fan I can’t believe my eyes each week, I’m so used to our defense folding in situations like these that I’m forever wary of them. Hopefully Rashan Gary can play in a brace this week, but if not we’re down to Preston Smith and a 7th round rookie at the EDGE
Practice squad caliber corners is a stretch. Stokes has been solid considering he’s a rookie who had to suddenly be CB1 due to injuries. King has been solid in the games he’s played, and Douglas is doing better than what many probably expected considering he was signed off of Arizona’s PS.
Personally, I'm dropping them for Miami
I would, but I’m starting Corey davis and Michael carter. Actually come to think about it, my previous Corey davis + opponent defense combo didn’t disappoint the few times I tried it.
I'm debating dropping for the 49ers
Curious why Tua didn't make the QB list. Is Cam really the better add over Tua for a Stafford bye week fill in?
In the same boat, Stafford on bye was all set to go with Tua until I read this.
Might pivot to Jones or Cam.
Same boat brother. I picked up Jones for now but I might pivot to Newton. Newton is higher risk though. He can’t pass for shit and if he doesn’t get the goal line TDs he’s likely to not put up good numbers. But we all know he’s going to run the ball and that’s how QBs put up the real big numbers
I don’t see any reason not to go with Tua. Jets giving up lost of points to opposing teams.
I'm wondering the same thing. Perhaps the jets defense has been good enough the past few weeks to diminish what seems like a good match up. It's also a division game and I try to avoid division games when looking for bye week fill ins. There's injury concerns with his finger too. Still might roll with Tua though.
Either Tua or Cam for me and I am already starting CMC so not too sure how I feel about the Cam/CMC stack
I like it … if there is a rushing TD- it more than likely is one of your guys. No more worrying about Cam vulturing the goal line TD
Yesss every time Justin Herbert is ranked outside top 12 he has a good week. Firing him up this week.
I'm Top 5 watch
I will. 10 targets. 8 catches. 111 Yards, TDs on Sunday Night.
Please throw more deep balls. And run the ball more yourself, too. Thanks.
Been thinking about streaming Tannehill over him this week, but you’re right. His boom weeks seem to come when you least expect it, and Pittsburgh is that kind of matchup.
I picked up Fields because Herbert has been so up and down. Very torn on who to start this week.
Hope you chose right 🙏🏻
I did! Stuck it out with Herbie, thank god.
Your theory holds true, his tougher matchups end up being his best production. Never doubting him again, and hope he can keep it going.
Benching him for Tanny, so grats on ur 35 pt game
facing him this week and I know he's gonna go off
Curious to see why the Patriots defense is so low against a struggling Atlanta team without their 2 best weapons.
I'm 3 for 3 getting burned on thursday night defenses this year lol
Yeah but Atlanta just got dismantled by the Cowboys D and it’s a short week. If I had the Pats I’d be playing them with confidence.
The Pats are probably the only D I'd trust on Thursday because of Bill B, but saying that they will probably give up 35.
Is 7th really that low, given the opponents of the defenses ranked above them?
I think it's probably lower than they'll finish, but it's not that wild to rank them below the teams that play the Texans, Lions, WFT, Giants, Bears, and Jags.
They're the #2 fantasy defense on the season and have scored double digits in their last four games. No way am I dropping them this week. Is it a gamble? Sure, but I'll take the gamble against a struggling Atlanta defense without Patterson.
it's why this is a model, and you have eyes, so you can use both to make your own call
> you have eyes
This point is important. Sometimes we can get way too bogged down by numbers. Your eyes can tell you a whole lot that numbers can't. Target share is a great stat sometimes. Other times, a guy is seeing 25% of targets but you watch him and he's dog fuckin shit.
Took the bengals and ravens on Thursday night when they were a top pick. Never again.
1. TNF Defenses
2. Cordarrelle is looking like he could play, it’s unsure
I’m a Falcons fan and I’m 100% starting Pats D, even if we were fully healthy Billy B owns us
Is it time to move on from LAR? Between their bye and the disappointing offensive performance lately I think I'm done waiting for them to be "elite". Feels like streaming at this point might work out better
I’m dropping them if my waiver claim for Miami goes through.
Think I'm about to do the same, either MIA or CAR
Are we really trusting Russell Wilson over Joe Burrow after Russ's performance this weekend?
I want to write that off as a shaking off the rust game but who knows.
He was so bad I just wish he would have showed some upside in that Packer game.
The Seahawks have been so bad in general. It's hard to trust Russ until he shows us that deep ball connection with Metcalf and Lockett.
If Murray starts then Wilson could be throwing a ton this game especially without Carson still. My other option is Kirk Cousins who doesn't even break the top 16 in this model.
I have Cousins, Joe Burrow & Russ..I'm leaning towards Joe but your point about the shootout potential is appealing
Definitely will be waiting to see if Murray plays and then we'll have to decide from there. At least you have two options that are promising
Both my QBs so this week will be a challenge to decide
Yea I'm leaning Joe Burrow. He is playing great lately, the team is rested up coming off a bye. Russ was throwing some nice looking passes last week, it just seems like the offense is kind of a mess right now.
I have both and am starting Burrow next week
Good luck man! Out of curiosity, what is your record?
And to you - I’m now 5-5 after having to sit Chubb this week
Nope. Not starting the Browns DST. I don’t think I’ve seen a worse defense this year than the Browns last week.
Counterpoint: the Lions
I hear you, I lost by 6 this week and they scored me -6. Hard to trust after that.
I picked up Nick Folk in like week 2 because of u/subvertadown. He's #1 in scoring and still not ranked top 5 in most consensus rankings. I'm tired of the slander!
Same! Just keep winning baby 8)
Is it just me or is there no top 10 for kickers?
he switched up the kicker format I believe
Bass has been a rock solid kicker
Oh i got it, was reading it wrong lol
So no Boswell? Outside of his concussion game he is double digits in last 4 full games.
Steelers defense is good but they have no red zone weapons and so field goal opportunity is higher than previous years.
Was about to comment the same thing, maybe someone can shed some light why we should fade Boswell against LAC this week?
Chargers D has been shittin the bed. Najee will Probably step all over them
I sure would love to see my first round draft pick finally put up a 30 pointer!
I'm the dummy who dropped him after Big Ben had the covid and watched him double up the guy I chose instead. Going back to Boswell this week and gonna stop with the tinkering.
Yup im locked in as a playoffs team…im picking up the Eagles. Not saying they will be the DST i play in the playoffs but it will at the minimum be a pretty good option vs what will be on waivers…Dolphins are another great option
Worst case, you're preventing someone else playing Eagles against you.
What is another defense I can pair with the Panthers?
Just replying to this as I'm curious as well.
So are we rolling with Greg Joseph again? He might be my ride or die K
i'm with him until the end as well
You are the best user on this sub
Pats/Folk stack ROS
You’ve got to be pretty pleased with your week so far.
Rams D a drop?
Week 1: 8 teams did the same or better
Week 2: 9 teams did the same or better
Week 3: 20 teams did the same or better
Week 4: 28 teams did the same or better
Week 5: 11 teams did the same or better
Week 6: 0 teams did the same or better
Week 7: 11 teams did the same or better
Week 8: 14 teams did the same or better
Week 9: 18 teams did the same or better
Week 10: 24 teams did the same or better
Holding them for Tennessee's week 13 bye. Rams play the Jags. Otherwise I'd drop.
Wondering the same thing.
What about the opposite of this? I always get the kicker from the team of the quarterback I’m playing. Thus if they score a td I get an (almost) automatic 1 point. If they can’t get in the end zone I get 3 points from the field goal. Essentially I’m reducing the points they get from touchdowns and increase my points if they get stopped. This makes more sense to me then pairing a kicker with my qb.
Any thoughts on this?
Of course it depends on weather for the kicker and availability. It’s be cool to see the stats on this vs pair the k+qb.
No idea why I never thought to do this but its in theory a great idea. Might give it a shot this week.
Thanks! I actually did get one question about this in the preview, and I'd like to do a follow-up to answer it. Despite not having done it yet, I agree that even "question 3" above seems to imply your suggestion could work. I'll need to actually demonstrate it though, especially because making a sound conclusion requires comparing against the other options.
Where my boys rolling with speedy Gonzalez this week??
Why eagles D is so over hyped? Are they good?? I have Colts, gotta drop them against Bills...so leaning towards Miami. Should I pick Miami or Philly D? Both available
Hold Joseph even against GB (#1 against kickers)?
Wondering this too
Feel like Packers d is underrated, although motivated Rams team then bye coming up. Tough decision to drop or not
If the Rams keep playing like this, I'm absolutely keeping the Packers around.
Who’s your favorite streamer for Stafford and beyond in case he suddenly slides w the drastic changes at WR?
Steaming Tua this week against the Jets.
Boswell is my kicker ROS
You’re easily the best FF resource on Reddit (possibly on the web) - thanks for continually putting interesting data-driven thoughts and ideas in front of us. I know I look forward to seeing what it is that you’ve been tinkering with each week
Hurts/Folk/Bills take me to the playoffs please
(yes I know I have some byes coming up to deal with)
Bills D next 4 games are bad matchups though.
hmm Browns or Panthers this week
IMO, Eagles DST should get a further bump. No Kamara, and now no Ramczyk and Armstead on the OL. The Eagles’ DL ranks third in pass rush win rate, 16th in adjusted sack rate, and 17th in QB hurry percentage.
I appreciate you.
Thanks for ranking Philly higher than the Broncos. You won a lot of folks their matchup.
I think I’m going to ride the Eagles D until the end (outside their bye of course)
Here are my picks so you all know who to avoid.
Folk and SF D
Browns def did me so dirty last week but I gotta roll em out against Detroit
how far would you go with avoiding QB/ kicker combo. For example, I’m starting Cam and CMC in 2QB league. Gonzalez is K1 this week. Would you go with Joseph or gonzalez
Thoughts on comparing Fields and Tua this week?
Boswell? Not on list but has been doing well.
One of you jinxed Matt Gay I won’t forget….
This is some amazing analysis. I was starting Brady and Prater this year thinking it was a good stack. Anecdotally it felt like a suboptimal strategy as the weeks went by but you’ve actually gone and done the analysis!
I'm gonna be honest, I literally just this moment got the "Stream of/with consciousness" pun. I can't believe it took me this long
I’m trusting the process and going Carolina.
I'm starting Tua. I don't trust any of these other match ups. Stafford is my boy but he is on his well deserved bye. I'm 9-1 and feeling good.
Also still dealing with the chubb Harris injuries and locket being a dud.....
I need Tua to open it up
Does the algorithm take into account injuries? I have the Bucs DST, and with Sherman and Vea likely out, and Saquon coming back, I have some concerns.
I've got Mahomes, currently holding Fields for the Detroit matchup next week. I might need to drop him. Think it's safe? Cousins, Wentz, Tannehill, Burrow, Carr, Mac Jones, Bridgewater, Matt Ryan are all on the FA list so I assume it's fine. It's 10 team 4 per TD and no one carries backups.
Hope people don’t take for granted all the work you do for a post like this. It’s not just crunching the data, but writing it up in a way that’s digestible is difficult.
I’ve been thinking, I’m absolutely sure they are :-D But I really appreciate your noticing and commenting— it makes the difference for me!
Folk getting it done.
Pats D and Folk combo :)
Zane Gonzalez has been sneaky good. I need to decide between Joseph and Folk this week. Hmmm
Yeah, Gonzalez is approaching set-and-forget territory imo. Not that I'll set and forget him, because it's so much more fun to stream, but I think it's an option if that's the way you like to do it.
For a team that’s playoff bound, and maybe even a Week 15 bye…what are some good DSTs to stash for Weeks 16 and 17?
I have Titans and can get Saints probably.
Eagles if they're available.
They’re so volatile tho, it’s either zero or 20. Can you trust them in the playoffs?
Whats the most likely rank column mean? I show tampa and titans currently 10th in points and after this week id assume they'd get better.
Always sleeping on Cousins
Love this post each week!
The QB + K has been a talking point in my League too so it's interesting to eventually see an analysis of the idea especially done by you. I'm looking forward to your posts each week, they are incredibly helpful, thanks for sharing them!
Folk/MIA for this guy. Thanks, Sub
So question on Long distance rankings for Kickers, and Kickers in general. How is Boswell not listed there? Dude has been money his entire career from 50+
Gonzalez: 9/9 40+ 3/5 50+
Joseph: 4/6 40+ 5/6 50+
Bullock: 5/7 40+ 1/1 50+
Boswell: 3/4 40+ 6/6(!) 50+
To be anywhere in the current format, he must be considered a top 10 kicker for the week matchup, otherwise he does not appear.
Is anyone else worried about streaming Cam? Saw this [tweet](https://twitter.com/stevereedap/status/1461757520469446661?s=21) stating P.J. Walker could play too.
Justin Fields for these next two weeks for Kyler owners?
I’m going eagles DST but I am SCARED
If lamar is out today would the bears d be a good play?
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>We do allow links
A few reasons this is comical...
This is great thanks. I don’t like when people use theories based on feeling or here say. That being said—— FUCK KICKERS! (and dst) lol
Best defense in the league? Nah drop em
Zuerlein, Joseph, Succop, or Carlson ROS?
Drop Cardinals D for Titans/Dolphins/Browns/Panthers? Or stick?
Anyone holding onto Gay through his bye week? Hate rostering two kickers but worry he’ll get scooped up.
Nice! Dropping Stafford for Mac Jones now..
In what world can we trust Bullock with distance?
No way I'm going Russ over Hurts again until Russ proves he's past the injury. He looked terrible.
Agreed, I think I'm playing cousins over him this week
No love for Butker
Thinking of dropping Buccs for 49ers or Pats.
Buccs have been hit or miss.
If the Pats are available, you get them NOW.
As someone what started Ryan and Koo last week, can confirm that QB and K tend to move in the same direction in a fluky bad game.