T O P
AutoModerator

We do not allow links to or advertising verbiage regarding Patreon or similar sites in the subreddit. Please see here for more details: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/powa63/a_note_on_a_rule_change_regarding_paywall_content/ *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/fantasyfootball) if you have any questions or concerns.*


Theeeeeetrurthurts

Folk has been solid so I’ll ride or die until he chokes two in a row.


bhaaru

Thursday night games are always flukey too. I could see the game ending with something like a 9-15 score.


Theeeeeetrurthurts

5 Folk FGs confirmed.


bvpham88

19-35 confirmed


fifteentwentyone

Have you seen the Falcons’ “defense”? It’s comprised of Diet Aaron Darnold (Grady Jarrett), Deion Jones, and sadness. I’ll put it like this: this time last week, the Falcons were “in the playoff hunt” and now they’re a bowl of cereal.


bhaaru

I guess my original thought was that each and every time I go into a thursday night game getting cute and over analyzing, I get burned. I'm riding Folk ROS.


fifteentwentyone

Agreed, I just wanted to make joke because being a falcons fan is hard.


billcosby23

Put some respect on AJ Terrell, then after that yes sadness


fifteentwentyone

Totally agree, he’s playing really well this year. Just couldn’t squeeze it into the joke, attention spans and all that.


prodigalkal7

Yup, this right here. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Folk has carried me through narrow victories, so I'm sticking with him


xdaftphunk

The one week I didn’t ride w Folk, I lost lol


-Slan-

pats fan chiming in (who also has folk), this offense is really starting to click and first time in a while BB has trusted a kicker.. dude has consistently proved himself this season and the results on the field speak for themself, pats have been unleashing him to kick 40+ (something they havent done the last few seasons)


RevolutionaryNorth60

How do you type that all out every week? Feel like I’ve been taking it for granted but you’re really a real person doing all that


subvertadown

Wow man, thanks, I really appreciate that. It absolutely gets intense. All the model development testing, accuracy reporting... it's literally a second job! Luckily, I completed my fine-tuning of models last week. That frees up a bit of time to do stuff like this. But it only really matters if you all notice and get something out of it-- so thanks!


bhaaru

Tons of people (like myself) usually don't comment but it's easily my top post each week. The weeks I stream and trust you I boom, the weeks I go my own way I get boomed. Thanks!


BetaRhoOmega

Gonna post to agree with the above. These posts are always incredible top quality work and it’s much appreciated


subvertadown

Thanks! It makes the work most worth it when I hear it from you guys. It's always been clear I can never compete here with Twitter re-posts, so you guys make the difference. In the old days, there was a little "Quality" flair from the odd mod, but I guess that's gone out of style. So thanks again, means a lot.


Mandated_Prism

I also agree with the above. Hardly have time to browse this subreddit anymore but I make it an effort to catch your weekly posts. Thank you for all that you do!


Jordan-Peterson-High

How did you learn to do this stuff? Are you a data scientist ?


OtterBall

The effort is seriously incredible. I really appreciate reading through these, and the hard work that goes into them


TheSnailsHere

We love you, you are the man


latman

Good interesting read


subvertadown

Thanks! It's only worth it if you guys actually think so. I appreciate it.


valiantlittleratboy

I really enjoyed reading all of it! I've read every week but this has been my favourite one.


traddy91

Dolphins D/ST upcoming schedule is fuckin JUICY: @ NYJ, vs. CAR, vs. NYG, Bye, @ NYJ, @ NO


cavahoos

What's up with being so low on dolphins?


Biden_my_time

defenses have a rough time when their offenses are unpredictable


Kid_Delicious

Will probably keep riding Joseph, as he’s been super consistent. If the Packers offense continues to be meh, that should keep FG opportunities on the table, and their D is good enough to stop drives short of the end zone. Plus playing at home, indoors. Could see 12+ from Greggy boy.


Phatjayyy

Just a heads up, GB has only given up multiple field goals to one team all year


Kid_Delicious

That’s a good call. But that does include a blowout with all TDs (Saints), a shutout with an end zone pick, and that crazy Bengals game with 100 missed kicks. You 100% could be on to something, but it could be a fluke too.


63663672

My Joseph brother 🤝 It was a good showing.


jimmyhoffasbrother

I was just wondering about the kicker/QB pairing and risk mitigation yesterday, so I appreciate this statistical look at it. Thanks as always for the rankings!


subvertadown

You're welcome! I guess it was well-timed. Thanks for reading.


carpe228

I can say I am very happy my opponent had the Stafford and Gay paring yesterday!


attackerjackrr

Why aren’t the Dolphins at top 5? They’ve had two consecutive great performances the past couple weeks and they play the Jets this week


Jealous-Bike-6883

Thoughts on Packers Def? I opted to go with my gut last week and play them after seeing them harass the cardinals and Kyler. They seem to have a very safe floor of around six points?


petripeeduhpedro

Their only bad week was week 1. I'm sticking with them, I like the safety in their floor


Jealous-Bike-6883

Panthers are available in my league and their next two games look better otherwise I’d ride with packers as well. I may go back with packers after bye if they’re still available


petripeeduhpedro

Yeah it looks like that mid-season slump that they were in has been solved. There's some volatility with Cam that could be scary though, in terms of giving the opposition a short field


SdBolts4

I scooped them before their game started Sunday and am trying to get them in my other league. Then I just need to find a D/ST to pair them with for Weeks 13, 15, and 16 (maybe Eagles or Vikings?)


Electronic_Pop5689

Panthers and Eagles ROS schedules complement really well. Just picked up Eagles for that reason!


D4rkd3str0yer

Only thing I would say is eventually I think the luck will run out. They just lost two more pass rushers last week and are still starting practice squad caliber corners. As a Packer fan I can’t believe my eyes each week, I’m so used to our defense folding in situations like these that I’m forever wary of them. Hopefully Rashan Gary can play in a brace this week, but if not we’re down to Preston Smith and a 7th round rookie at the EDGE


RubyT12

Practice squad caliber corners is a stretch. Stokes has been solid considering he’s a rookie who had to suddenly be CB1 due to injuries. King has been solid in the games he’s played, and Douglas is doing better than what many probably expected considering he was signed off of Arizona’s PS.


[deleted]

[удалено]


jbwwk

Personally, I'm dropping them for Miami


supreme052895

Same


funky_kong_

I would, but I’m starting Corey davis and Michael carter. Actually come to think about it, my previous Corey davis + opponent defense combo didn’t disappoint the few times I tried it.


TempletonFerrariIV

I'm debating dropping for the 49ers


UnderTheBed8

Curious why Tua didn't make the QB list. Is Cam really the better add over Tua for a Stafford bye week fill in?


UpUpDownDownBA_Start

>Tua In the same boat, Stafford on bye was all set to go with Tua until I read this. Might pivot to Jones or Cam.


redeemer47

Same boat brother. I picked up Jones for now but I might pivot to Newton. Newton is higher risk though. He can’t pass for shit and if he doesn’t get the goal line TDs he’s likely to not put up good numbers. But we all know he’s going to run the ball and that’s how QBs put up the real big numbers


xReD-BaRoNx

I don’t see any reason not to go with Tua. Jets giving up lost of points to opposing teams.


slorkbat

I'm wondering the same thing. Perhaps the jets defense has been good enough the past few weeks to diminish what seems like a good match up. It's also a division game and I try to avoid division games when looking for bye week fill ins. There's injury concerns with his finger too. Still might roll with Tua though.


UnderTheBed8

Either Tua or Cam for me and I am already starting CMC so not too sure how I feel about the Cam/CMC stack


hsd1010

I like it … if there is a rushing TD- it more than likely is one of your guys. No more worrying about Cam vulturing the goal line TD


Wthtony

Yesss every time Justin Herbert is ranked outside top 12 he has a good week. Firing him up this week. Edit: 👀


Justin_Herbert10

I'm Top 5 watch


[deleted]

[удалено]


Justin_Herbert10

I will. 10 targets. 8 catches. 111 Yards, TDs on Sunday Night. #BOOK IT


robotech021

Please throw more deep balls. And run the ball more yourself, too. Thanks.


Kid_Delicious

Been thinking about streaming Tannehill over him this week, but you’re right. His boom weeks seem to come when you least expect it, and Pittsburgh is that kind of matchup.


robotech021

I picked up Fields because Herbert has been so up and down. Very torn on who to start this week.


Wthtony

Hope you chose right 🙏🏻


Kid_Delicious

I did! Stuck it out with Herbie, thank god. Your theory holds true, his tougher matchups end up being his best production. Never doubting him again, and hope he can keep it going.


v4xN0s

Benching him for Tanny, so grats on ur 35 pt game


dec92010

facing him this week and I know he's gonna go off


GoldWhale

Curious to see why the Patriots defense is so low against a struggling Atlanta team without their 2 best weapons.


I__Like_Stories

Thursday night? I'm 3 for 3 getting burned on thursday night defenses this year lol


FirstHipster

Yeah but Atlanta just got dismantled by the Cowboys D and it’s a short week. If I had the Pats I’d be playing them with confidence.


[deleted]

The Pats are probably the only D I'd trust on Thursday because of Bill B, but saying that they will probably give up 35.


FirstHipster

Welp


jimmyhoffasbrother

Is 7th really that low, given the opponents of the defenses ranked above them? I think it's probably lower than they'll finish, but it's not that wild to rank them below the teams that play the Texans, Lions, WFT, Giants, Bears, and Jags.


aminnesotabro69

They're the #2 fantasy defense on the season and have scored double digits in their last four games. No way am I dropping them this week. Is it a gamble? Sure, but I'll take the gamble against a struggling Atlanta defense without Patterson.


Neverland__

it's why this is a model, and you have eyes, so you can use both to make your own call


TestFixation

> you have eyes This point is important. Sometimes we can get way too bogged down by numbers. Your eyes can tell you a whole lot that numbers can't. Target share is a great stat sometimes. Other times, a guy is seeing 25% of targets but you watch him and he's dog fuckin shit.


FastLikeSonic

Took the bengals and ravens on Thursday night when they were a top pick. Never again.


ZerooChance

1. TNF Defenses 2. Cordarrelle is looking like he could play, it’s unsure


phat_sozage

I’m a Falcons fan and I’m 100% starting Pats D, even if we were fully healthy Billy B owns us


CChristian23_

Nah fr


Star_Dog

Is it time to move on from LAR? Between their bye and the disappointing offensive performance lately I think I'm done waiting for them to be "elite". Feels like streaming at this point might work out better


blazedlawyer

I’m dropping them if my waiver claim for Miami goes through.


Star_Dog

Think I'm about to do the same, either MIA or CAR


b0zAizen

Are we really trusting Russell Wilson over Joe Burrow after Russ's performance this weekend?


gwalker2776

I want to write that off as a shaking off the rust game but who knows.


zealousdumptruck

He was so bad I just wish he would have showed some upside in that Packer game.


robotech021

The Seahawks have been so bad in general. It's hard to trust Russ until he shows us that deep ball connection with Metcalf and Lockett.


zealousdumptruck

If Murray starts then Wilson could be throwing a ton this game especially without Carson still. My other option is Kirk Cousins who doesn't even break the top 16 in this model.


b0zAizen

I have Cousins, Joe Burrow & Russ..I'm leaning towards Joe but your point about the shootout potential is appealing


zealousdumptruck

Definitely will be waiting to see if Murray plays and then we'll have to decide from there. At least you have two options that are promising


dopeboySHAKE

Both my QBs so this week will be a challenge to decide


b0zAizen

Yea I'm leaning Joe Burrow. He is playing great lately, the team is rested up coming off a bye. Russ was throwing some nice looking passes last week, it just seems like the offense is kind of a mess right now.


supreme052895

I have both and am starting Burrow next week


b0zAizen

Good luck man! Out of curiosity, what is your record?


supreme052895

And to you - I’m now 5-5 after having to sit Chubb this week


gregbraaa

Nope. Not starting the Browns DST. I don’t think I’ve seen a worse defense this year than the Browns last week.


Tylerdong

Counterpoint: the Lions


ohididthat

I hear you, I lost by 6 this week and they scored me -6. Hard to trust after that.


Dudewheresmycah

I picked up Nick Folk in like week 2 because of u/subvertadown. He's #1 in scoring and still not ranked top 5 in most consensus rankings. I'm tired of the slander!


D4rkd3str0yer

Same! Just keep winning baby 8)


d1xienormous

Is it just me or is there no top 10 for kickers?


uioptreewater44

he switched up the kicker format I believe


[deleted]

Bass has been a rock solid kicker


d1xienormous

Oh i got it, was reading it wrong lol


Justin_Herbert10

Joseph.


Canadoc

So no Boswell? Outside of his concussion game he is double digits in last 4 full games. Steelers defense is good but they have no red zone weapons and so field goal opportunity is higher than previous years.


BigBro2k20

Was about to comment the same thing, maybe someone can shed some light why we should fade Boswell against LAC this week?


forkface1

Chargers D has been shittin the bed. Najee will Probably step all over them


deGrominator2019

I sure would love to see my first round draft pick finally put up a 30 pointer!


chrisfilm

I'm the dummy who dropped him after Big Ben had the covid and watched him double up the guy I chose instead. Going back to Boswell this week and gonna stop with the tinkering.


[deleted]

[удалено]


RangersFan243

Eagles


torfan89

Yup im locked in as a playoffs team…im picking up the Eagles. Not saying they will be the DST i play in the playoffs but it will at the minimum be a pretty good option vs what will be on waivers…Dolphins are another great option


SdBolts4

Worst case, you're preventing someone else playing Eagles against you.


impulsethetruth

What is another defense I can pair with the Panthers?


zacinthebox

Just replying to this as I'm curious as well.


Electronic_Pop5689

Eagles


bro_lol

So are we rolling with Greg Joseph again? He might be my ride or die K


DonLemonNYE2019

i'm with him until the end as well


SolarClipz

You are the best user on this sub Pats/Folk stack ROS


BerninatinTheCountry

You’ve got to be pretty pleased with your week so far.


RangersFan243

Rams D a drop?


fantfoot

Week 1: 8 teams did the same or better Week 2: 9 teams did the same or better Week 3: 20 teams did the same or better Week 4: 28 teams did the same or better Week 5: 11 teams did the same or better Week 6: 0 teams did the same or better Week 7: 11 teams did the same or better Week 8: 14 teams did the same or better Week 9: 18 teams did the same or better Week 10: 24 teams did the same or better


maharajagaipajama

Holding them for Tennessee's week 13 bye. Rams play the Jags. Otherwise I'd drop.


mwg3c

Wondering the same thing.


zildjia

What about the opposite of this? I always get the kicker from the team of the quarterback I’m playing. Thus if they score a td I get an (almost) automatic 1 point. If they can’t get in the end zone I get 3 points from the field goal. Essentially I’m reducing the points they get from touchdowns and increase my points if they get stopped. This makes more sense to me then pairing a kicker with my qb. Any thoughts on this? Of course it depends on weather for the kicker and availability. It’s be cool to see the stats on this vs pair the k+qb.


Xspike_dudeX

No idea why I never thought to do this but its in theory a great idea. Might give it a shot this week.


subvertadown

Thanks! I actually did get one question about this in the preview, and I'd like to do a follow-up to answer it. Despite not having done it yet, I agree that even "question 3" above seems to imply your suggestion could work. I'll need to actually demonstrate it though, especially because making a sound conclusion requires comparing against the other options.


zswiss23

Where my boys rolling with speedy Gonzalez this week??


c_c_AtMaNdu

Why eagles D is so over hyped? Are they good?? I have Colts, gotta drop them against Bills...so leaning towards Miami. Should I pick Miami or Philly D? Both available


sendphotopls

Hold Joseph even against GB (#1 against kickers)?


63663672

Wondering this too


drawafade

Feel like Packers d is underrated, although motivated Rams team then bye coming up. Tough decision to drop or not


DolitehGreat

If the Rams keep playing like this, I'm absolutely keeping the Packers around.


biggiesmallsyall

Who’s your favorite streamer for Stafford and beyond in case he suddenly slides w the drastic changes at WR?


xReD-BaRoNx

Steaming Tua this week against the Jets.


Rybackmonster

Boswell is my kicker ROS


FrozenPhilosopher

You’re easily the best FF resource on Reddit (possibly on the web) - thanks for continually putting interesting data-driven thoughts and ideas in front of us. I know I look forward to seeing what it is that you’ve been tinkering with each week


dec92010

Hurts/Folk/Bills take me to the playoffs please (yes I know I have some byes coming up to deal with)


gatman12

Bills D next 4 games are bad matchups though.


RalphBear

hmm Browns or Panthers this week


tarcoal

IMO, Eagles DST should get a further bump. No Kamara, and now no Ramczyk and Armstead on the OL. The Eagles’ DL ranks third in pass rush win rate, 16th in adjusted sack rate, and 17th in QB hurry percentage.


Ohmaygahh

I appreciate you.


bhaaru

Thanks for ranking Philly higher than the Broncos. You won a lot of folks their matchup.


mdog_74

I think I’m going to ride the Eagles D until the end (outside their bye of course)


v4xN0s

Here are my picks so you all know who to avoid. Folk and SF D


taco_2sdays

Browns def did me so dirty last week but I gotta roll em out against Detroit


tonetime_88

how far would you go with avoiding QB/ kicker combo. For example, I’m starting Cam and CMC in 2QB league. Gonzalez is K1 this week. Would you go with Joseph or gonzalez


Chinese_Santa

Thoughts on comparing Fields and Tua this week?


GrooveyGary

Boswell? Not on list but has been doing well.


DBSmooth

One of you jinxed Matt Gay I won’t forget….


Lt-Surge101

This is some amazing analysis. I was starting Brady and Prater this year thinking it was a good stack. Anecdotally it felt like a suboptimal strategy as the weeks went by but you’ve actually gone and done the analysis!


munkysnuflz

I'm gonna be honest, I literally just this moment got the "Stream of/with consciousness" pun. I can't believe it took me this long


redroverster

I’m trusting the process and going Carolina.


deedeebee

I'm starting Tua. I don't trust any of these other match ups. Stafford is my boy but he is on his well deserved bye. I'm 9-1 and feeling good. Also still dealing with the chubb Harris injuries and locket being a dud..... I need Tua to open it up


xReD-BaRoNx

Does the algorithm take into account injuries? I have the Bucs DST, and with Sherman and Vea likely out, and Saquon coming back, I have some concerns.


team_sheikie

I've got Mahomes, currently holding Fields for the Detroit matchup next week. I might need to drop him. Think it's safe? Cousins, Wentz, Tannehill, Burrow, Carr, Mac Jones, Bridgewater, Matt Ryan are all on the FA list so I assume it's fine. It's 10 team 4 per TD and no one carries backups.


glyoung

Hope people don’t take for granted all the work you do for a post like this. It’s not just crunching the data, but writing it up in a way that’s digestible is difficult.


subvertadown

I’ve been thinking, I’m absolutely sure they are :-D But I really appreciate your noticing and commenting— it makes the difference for me!


UpUpDownDownBA_Start

Folk getting it done.


StayEnvy1

Pats D and Folk combo :)


aapox33

Zane Gonzalez has been sneaky good. I need to decide between Joseph and Folk this week. Hmmm


jimmyhoffasbrother

Yeah, Gonzalez is approaching set-and-forget territory imo. Not that I'll set and forget him, because it's so much more fun to stream, but I think it's an option if that's the way you like to do it.


szzzn

For a team that’s playoff bound, and maybe even a Week 15 bye…what are some good DSTs to stash for Weeks 16 and 17? I have Titans and can get Saints probably.


jimmyhoffasbrother

Eagles if they're available.


WarrenAlaCarte

They’re so volatile tho, it’s either zero or 20. Can you trust them in the playoffs?


bctTamu

Whats the most likely rank column mean? I show tampa and titans currently 10th in points and after this week id assume they'd get better.


[deleted]

Always sleeping on Cousins


Ed_The_FF_Analyst

Love this post each week!


DrDanger10

Thank you


Pardoxon

The QB + K has been a talking point in my League too so it's interesting to eventually see an analysis of the idea especially done by you. I'm looking forward to your posts each week, they are incredibly helpful, thanks for sharing them!


dopeboySHAKE

Folk/MIA for this guy. Thanks, Sub


Alex_GordonAMA

So question on Long distance rankings for Kickers, and Kickers in general. How is Boswell not listed there? Dude has been money his entire career from 50+ Gonzalez: 9/9 40+ 3/5 50+ Joseph: 4/6 40+ 5/6 50+ Bullock: 5/7 40+ 1/1 50+ Boswell: 3/4 40+ 6/6(!) 50+


subvertadown

To be anywhere in the current format, he must be considered a top 10 kicker for the week matchup, otherwise he does not appear.


tarcoal

Is anyone else worried about streaming Cam? Saw this [tweet](https://twitter.com/stevereedap/status/1461757520469446661?s=21) stating P.J. Walker could play too.


SolarClipz

Justin Fields for these next two weeks for Kyler owners?


gregabbottisacoward

I’m going eagles DST but I am SCARED


zolone22

If lamar is out today would the bears d be a good play?


AutoModerator

We do allow links to or advertising verbiage regarding Patreon or similar sites in the subreddit. Please see here for more details: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/powa63/a_note_on_a_rule_change_regarding_paywall_content/ *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/fantasyfootball) if you have any questions or concerns.*


subvertadown

>We do allow links A few reasons this is comical...


System_Lower

This is great thanks. I don’t like when people use theories based on feeling or here say. That being said—— FUCK KICKERS! (and dst) lol


[deleted]

[удалено]


shittydiks

Best defense in the league? Nah drop em


UndervascularHood

Zuerlein, Joseph, Succop, or Carlson ROS?


BigStonesJones

Drop Cardinals D for Titans/Dolphins/Browns/Panthers? Or stick?


t1runner

Anyone holding onto Gay through his bye week? Hate rostering two kickers but worry he’ll get scooped up.


biggiesmallsyall

Nice! Dropping Stafford for Mac Jones now..


liteshadow4

In what world can we trust Bullock with distance?


chrisfilm

No way I'm going Russ over Hurts again until Russ proves he's past the injury. He looked terrible.


bryan49

Agreed, I think I'm playing cousins over him this week


dggg

No love for Butker


SiriusRegulus

Thinking of dropping Buccs for 49ers or Pats. Buccs have been hit or miss.


xReD-BaRoNx

If the Pats are available, you get them NOW.


rushhourIV

As someone what started Ryan and Koo last week, can confirm that QB and K tend to move in the same direction in a fluky bad game.